000 AGXX40 KNHC 130651 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 251 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS THROUGH MON THEN ECMWF BLEND MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT FOR WIND. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH MWW3 FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE RIDGING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF. THE AXIS CURRENTLY LIES FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NW GULF AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN BY MON. FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS THE GFS INTENSIFICATION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR HONDURAS BY MON WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AREA ON TUE. THE GFS SHOWS 20 KT EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TUE EVENING DUE TO THE STRONGER PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONGER TROUGHING TO THE S AND THE RIDING TO THE N COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND UKMET. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE GFS BY MON. ANY LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT HERE WOULD EITHER BE DUE TO OR INFLUENCE THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. GOING WITH THE ECMWF SIDES WITH FASTER TIMING FOR THE WAVE TUE INTO WED AS ITS N PORTION CROSSES PORTIONS OF BAY OF CAMPECHE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS THROUGH MON THEN ECMWF BLEND MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT FOR WIND. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH NWPS FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ASCAT FROM 0244 UTC SHOWS GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDDAY AS THE RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND THE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE WEST MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA...WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW THE GALE THAT IS OCCURRING. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM 1930 UTC SHOWED SEAS TO 13 FT JUST DOWNWIND OF THE CURRENT GALE REGION. THE GFS AND ITS MWW3 ARE THE CLOSEST TO THE OBSERVATIONS. AS MENTIONED IN THE SECTION ABOVE...THE GFS DEVELOPS A LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR HONDURAS TUE INTO WED AND GENERATES WIDESPREAD 30 KT WINDS AND 12-14 FT SEAS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND WESTERN HONDURAS. THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER. ONLY THE GEFS SHOWS ANY SUPPORT FOR THIS SCENARIO. LEANING ON THE ECMWF AND NWPS FOR THE UPDATED GRIDS FROM MON ONWARD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS THROUGH MON THEN ECMWF BLEND MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT FOR WIND. PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH MWW3 FOR WAVES THROUGH MON WITH EC WAVE ADDED IN MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SW N ATLC...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATING THE WINDS. DIFFERENCES ARISE BY TUE AS THE GFS BECOMES STRONGER WITH THE TRADE WINDS FROM NORTHERN HISPANIOLA AND NE CUBA INTO THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND SE BAHAMAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FAVOR THE ECMWF OVER THE GFS BY MON NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.