000 AGXX40 KNHC 121917 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 317 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS THROUGH DAY 3 THEN GFS-ECMWF BLEND UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SE ACROSS ERN GULF AND FL PENINSULA AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING ACTIVE WX E AND SE THROUGH THE STRAITS...ACROSS FL AND ACROSS BAHAMAS. WX EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OUT OF AREA WITHIN 24 HRS. OTHERWISE...WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS EXTREME S FL THEN EXTENDS W THEN WNW INTO W PART OF BASIN. LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEPICTED BY PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES WITH PEAK SEAS 4 TO MAYBE 5 FT TX COASTAL WATERS AND BIG BEND REGION IN ENHANCED CONVECTIVE INFLOW. NO CHANGE TO RECENT FORECAST REASONING WITH RIDGE DOMINATING THROUGH THE PERIOD. RIDGE TO LIFT SLOWLY N TO ALONG 28N BY 72 HRS AS ATLC RIDGE REORGANIZES AND BUILDS SW INTO BASIN OVER WEEKEND. EXPECT NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE N AND NW YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST EACH LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING. N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN SW CARIB TO PROPAGATE NW AND CROSS PORTIONS OF BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN-MON WITH ENHANCED LLVL WINDS AND WEATHER. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS THROUGH DAY 2 THEN ECMWF WITH SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS. ATLC RIDGE TO PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD AND MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT FOR MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES BASIN WIDE AND STRONG TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS. STRONG WINDS OFF OF COLOMBIA HAVE BEGUN TO EXPAND NWD TO NEAR 15N THIS MORNING AS PER BUOY 42058 WHICH HAS RISEN TO 10 FT. ATLC RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND AND FRESH TO STRONG FLOW WILL EXPAND E TO W...AND AIDED BY PAIR OF AEW'S MOVING THROUGH BASIN. FIRST WAVE IS ACROSS SW CARIB PROBABLY ALONG 76W OR SO AND HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED. THIS WAVE HAS HELPED TO ENHANCE FLOW OFF OF COLOMBIA OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING...AND STILL GOING TO NEAR 30 KT ATTM. WAVE TO MOVE INTO NICARAGUA BY 12Z SAT THEN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND GULF OF HONDURAS SAT NIGHT-SUN. THIS WAVE TO INCREASE LLVL FLOW AND TRADES AND KEEP WINDS IN GULF OF HONDURAS UP 20-25 THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SECOND AEW IS HIGH AMPLITUDE AND BEING STRETCHED AND SHEARED WITH MOST WX S OF 13N AND MOVING ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ATTM. HUGE AREA OF DEEP SAL IS DAMMED UP BEHIND THIS WAVE AND WILL SPREAD INTO THE CARIB OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS 70W SAT NIGHT-EARLY SUN WITH N PORTION FRACTURING ACROSS ATLC TO N OF NE CARIB. INCREASED CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS N PORTIONS OF S AMERICA AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. A THIRD AEW HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED TO ALONG 38W MOVING QUICKLY W 20 KT AND WILL ENTER TROPICAL ATLC WATERS EARLY SAT. THIS LOW LAT LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WILL ENHANCE TRADES S OF 12-13N AS IT MOVES WWD...WITH HUGE AREA OF SAL WITH AND AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. ATTM STILL HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN GFS SOLUTION NEXT WEEK IN DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND GULF OF HONDURAS THEN LIFTING N AND STRENGTHENING. HAVE BLENDED LARGE PORTION OF ECMWF BEYOND 00Z MON. GEFS MEAN ALSO FORECASTING SIMILAR SOLUTION WHILE ECENS DOES NOT. NWPS MANDATORY TO ELIMINATE GALE CONDITIONS...DYNAMIC FETCH IN W CARIB...AND 15 FT SEAS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND. 1020 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR 27N65W THIS MORNING AND DRIFTING NE WITH RIDGE SW TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS. DIGGING TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE ACROSS ERN GULF WILL SHIFT E AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH SAT BUT CONTINUE TO TRIGGER ACTIVE CNVTN ACROSS E AND SE QUADS AND THROUGH BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS REASONING...WITH RIDGE REORGANIZING AND BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING NWD TO ALONG 28-29N BY SUN. PASSING WAVES ACROSS CARIB AND BUILDING RIDGE TO INDUCE FRESH FLOW THROUGH SRN BAHAMAS AND DIURNAL ENHANCMENT OFF N COAST OF HISPANIOLA TO PRODUCE SEAS NEAR 7 FT EACH AFTERNOON- EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE SW ATLC WATERS W OF 55W THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.