000 AGXX40 KNHC 120536 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 136 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH IS GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED- HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN UPPER TROUGH HAS DUG S INTO THE N-CENTRAL WATERS WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS DURING PEAK HEATING ON WED. A FEW TSTMS REMAIN ORGANIZED ALONG A LINE FROM CENTRAL FL TO INTO THE GULF NEAR 26N85W...AND ALSO ACROSS THE FL STRAITS...ALL PROGRESSING E WITH TIME. A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPED ON WED EVENING ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE SW FL COAST TO THE W OF A N TO S ORIENTATED TROUGH THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE FL PENINSULA DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING ON WED. EXPECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PATTERN TO REPEAT AGAIN ON FRI EVENING AND ON SAT EVENING. THE SURFACE HIGH IS STILL EVIDENT NEAR 25N81.5W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO THE TX COASTAL BEND. SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT RETURN FLOW IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...AND ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 23N W OF 94W. THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY TIGHTEN TO THE S OF THE RIDGE EACH EVENING INCREASING THE SE-S FLOW TO 15-20 KT EVERYWHERE N OF 26N W OF 89W...AND ALSO TO THE S OF 26N W OF 87W. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX EACH MORNING WITH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS DIMINISHING TO MOSTLY 5-15 KT BY AFTERNOON. EXPECT NE-E 15-20 KT CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUN AND MON EVENINGS. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SUN NIGHT AND MON IN THE FORM OF A NE-E-SE WIND SHIFT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH IS GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLE BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 12N ALONG 70W WILL MOVE INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING AND PASS W OF THE AREA ON SAT...BUT ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY THE SLIGHTEST NE-E-SE WIND SHIFT NEAR THE WAVE AXIS WHICH WILL EXTEND N ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON SAT-SUN. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ENHANCED TO THE S OF 12N NEAR 67W...AND IS DENOTED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 17N ALONG 51W WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS TODAY AND FRI...PASS THROUGH THE SE CARIBBEAN ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT...AND PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SUN...REACHING THE SW CARIBBEAN ON MON. THIS WAVE CURRENTLY LACKS CONVECTION...BUT MAY INCREASE THE CONVECTION ALONG THE N COAST OF S AMERICA AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY WELL E OF THE AREA TO THE S OF 12N ALONG 22W WILL REACH ALONG 55W AROUND LATE MON NIGHT. OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS OF 8-12 FT...EXCEPT FOR A NOCTURNAL MAX OF 30 KT EXPECTED OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE AFFECTED AREA OF 20-25 KT TRADE WINDS WILL EXPAND N ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TO THE S OF 18N EACH NIGHT...AND THEN SHRINK TO THE S OF 16N DURING THE DAYTIME EACH DAY THROUGH SUN. EASTERLY 15-20 KT CONDITIONS...WITH SEAS OF 3-6 FT...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EACH EVENING THROUGH SUN EVENING INCREASING THE EASTERLY FLOW BRIEFLY TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ON MON SUPPORTING E 20-25 KT WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS FROM 15-19N W OF 80W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES...WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH IS GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 32N58W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO THE FL COAST AT 26N. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY N TO A POSITION FROM 31N60W TO PORT CANAVERAL LATE SAT THEN MEANDER THROUGH MON. EXPECT THE GRADIENT S OF THE RIDGE TO INCREASE THE EASTERLY FLOW TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING AND REPEAT AGAIN EACH EVENING THROUGH MON EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE SW ATLC WATERS W OF 55W THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.