000 AGXX40 KNHC 111907 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 307 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND UPPER TROUGH WITH FILLING VORTEX OVER FL PENINSULA SHIFTING VERY SLOWLY NE ATTM IN ADVANCE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH INCHING EWD ACROSS ENTIRE MS RIVER VALLEY. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS NE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS AND INTO SW LA WHILE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EWD AHEAD OF IT ACROSS MS-AL COASTAL WATERS SW THEN W TO NEAR 28N92W. ACTIVE AND DEEP CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AND SHIFT SE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS DEEP LAYERED TROUGH INCHES EWD AND DIGGS SE INTO SE GULF TONIGHT AND THEN ACROSS FL AND STRAITS FRI. SFC RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM EXTREME S FL GENERALLY WWD ALONG 25N WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONINC FLOW ACROSS BASIN YIELDING SEAS 3-4 FT NW AND 2-3 FT MOST OF REMAINDER...HIGHER NEAR CNVTN ACROSS NE PART. LITTLE CHANGE IN LLVL SYNOPTIC PATTERN EXPECTED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTING NWD TO 26N BY FRI AND TO 27N BY SAT. EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW EXCEPT FOR LATE AFTERNOON- EVENING DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT ACROSS N AND NW YUCATAN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND THROUGH SUN THEN ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS STRONG TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS TODAY DESPITE WEAK RIDGE ACROSS SW N ATLC...WITH RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWING 20 KT TRADES EXTENDING NWD TO ALMOST 17N ALONG 75-76W...AND FRESHENING FLOW 15-20 KT IN GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE NE-SW TROUGHING EXISTS ACROSS INSIDE WATERS. LOW LAT LOW AMPLITUDE AEW MOVING ACROSS VENEZUELA AND ACTING WITH RIDGE TO ENHANCE TRADES ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS...AND COULD INDUCE BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES OFF COLOMBIA WED AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT...ALTHOUGH NOT YET INDICATED IN FCST. WINDS WEAKER ACROSS SE CARIB ATTM BEHIND THE WAVE. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ATLC SW INTO LESSER ANTILLES AND TROPICAL N ATLC AND WLYS ALOFT ELSEWHERE N OF 12N YIELDING HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR APPROACHING AEW'S. LLVL SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO CHANGE LITTLE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MODELS MAINTAIN STRONG TRADES ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS AND GRADUALLY EXPANDING WWD BEYOND 80W AS FIRST AEW MOVES THROUGH BASIN AND INTO CENTRAL AMERICA FRI-SAT AND ATLC RIDGE REORGANIZES AND STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SW N ATLC. ONLY MODEST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH SUN BEFORE GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP CLOSED LOW ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS MON-WED AND LIFT NWD OUT OF BASIN. DIFFERENCES MAY LIE IN UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE GULF...WITH GFS FORECASTING FAVORABLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS W AND NW CARIB AND ECMWF DIGGING DEEPER AND SHEARING REGION. AT THIS TIME HAVE BEEN GOING WITH 50-50 BLEND OF THESE MODELS AS BOTH ENSEMBLES RESEMBLE ECMWF SOLUTION THROUGH MON. WW3 GENERATES VERY HIGH SEAS TO 15 FT BY MON-TUE ASSOCIATED WITH GFS DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE USED NWPS TO TONE DOWN SEAS. FIRST AEW HAS KICKED UP SEAS E OF WINDWARDS TO 8-9 FT PER OVERNIGHT AND MORNING ALTIMETER PASSES AND WILL GRADUALLY ABATE NEXT 12-18 HOURS BELOW 8 FT. NEXT LARGE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE AEW ALONG ABOUT 48W ATTM TO ENTER TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE WED EARLY THU WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEHIND WAVE AND S OF 13N AS IT MOVES THROUGH REGION. HUGE AREA OF SAL AND DUST BEHIND WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG AEJ TO MOVE ACROSS REGION BEHIND THIS WAVE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THICK SAL SPREADING AS FAR N AS 18N. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 28N68W WITH WEAK RIDGE NW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NE AND MERGE WITH NW ATLC RIDGE AND REORGANIZE THROUGH FRI...SHIFTING EVER SO SLIGHTLY N ACROSS S FL AS MENTIONED ABOVE. EXPECT THE GRADIENT S OF THE RIDGE TO INCREASE THE EASTERLY FLOW TO 20- 25 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA EACH EVENING BEGINNING ON THU EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE SW ATLC WATERS W OF 55W THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.