000 AGXX40 KNHC 110510 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 110 AM EDT WED JUN 11 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH IS GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED S AND EXTENDS NW FROM CENTRAL FL TO THE TX COASTAL BEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG THE TX COAST WILL PASS E ACROSS THE NW COASTAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...THEN JUST BRUSH THE N-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LIFTING OUT TO THE N AWAY FROM THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT N TONIGHT AND THU REACHING FROM FL BAY TO THE NE TX COAST ON THU AFTERNOON. A SURFACE HIGH WILL OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE SW FL COAST AS A N TO S ORIENTATED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE FL PENINSULA DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT RETURN FLOW IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED N OF THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND ITS PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING E ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT ON THU ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF...EXCEPT ACROSS THE TX COASTAL BEND WHERE S 10- 15 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE. THE GRADIENT WILL THEN TIGHTEN EACH NIGHT...BEGINNING THU NIGHT...INCREASING THE SE-S FLOW TO 15-20 KT EVERYWHERE W OF 85W TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX EACH MORNING WITH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS DIMINISHING TO MOSTLY 5-10 KT BY AFTERNOON. EXPECT NE-E 15-20 KT CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUN EVENING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH IS GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO INCREASE THE EASTERLY FLOW TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 15-20 KT CONDITIONS. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 11N ALONG ALONG 59W WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SE CARIBBEAN TODAY AND THU...AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON THU NIGHT AND FRI...AND PASS THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT...BUT ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY THE SLIGHTEST NE-E-SE WIND SHIFT NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONLY OVER S AMERICA. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 13N ALONG 43W WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS S OF 13N BETWEEN 55-65W ON THU NIGHT AND FRI...PASS THROUGH THE SE CARIBBEAN ON FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS ON SUN AND MON. THIS HIGHER AMPLITUDE WAVE MAY INCREASE THE CONVECTION ALONG THE N COAST OF S AMERICA AS IT PASSES. OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT...EXCEPT FOR A NOCTURNAL MAX OF 30 KT EXPECTED OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE AFFECTED AREA WILL EXPAND N ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TO THE S OF 17.5N ON THU NIGHT...AND THEN SHRINK TO THE S OF 15N DURING THE DAYTIME ON FRI. EASTERLY 15-20 KT CONDITIONS...WITH SEAS OF 3-6 FT...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EACH EVENING THROUGH SAT INCREASING THE EASTERLY FLOW BRIEFLY TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. EASTERLY SWELLS...SEAS 6-9 FT...WILL SPREAD W ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON SUN AND MON. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES...WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH IS GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED AT 26N63W HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO THE CENTRAL FL COAST. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY N ALONG 65W TODAY REACHING NEAR 30N65W ON THU NIGHT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO THE CENTRAL FL COAST. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM 31N62W TO THE CENTRAL FL COAST ON FRI THROUGH MON. EXPECT THE GRADIENT S OF THE RIDGE TO INCREASE THE EASTERLY FLOW TO 20- 25 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA EACH EVENING BEGINNING ON THU EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE SW ATLC WATERS W OF 55W THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.