000 AGXX40 KNHC 101826 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 226 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFE-ECMWF BLEND A QUASI-STATIONARY RIDGE EXTENDS W-NW FROM S CENTRAL FL W GULF ALONG 26N...AND WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. COASTAL TROUGH EVIDENT ACROSS SW GULF-VERACRUZ AREA...WHILE SLY FLOW HAS INCREASED ACROSS LA COASTAL WATERS AS INFLOW INTO CNVTN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING TX COAST. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY INTO NE TX AND SW LA COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED THEN LIFT NWD AND INLAND BY WED AFTERNOON. NEG TILT UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS E GULF INTO S FL WILL MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS S FL AND STRAITS THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO NE...WHEN DEEP LAYERED LOW ACROSS MS VALLEY ATTM DROPS SE AND REPLACES TROUGH THU-FRI. MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S FLOW WILL PULSE ACROSS W PORTIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS 4 TO LOCALLY 5 FT...AND POSSIBLY REACHING 6 FT IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED FLOW ACROSS TEXAS COASTAL WATERS ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFE-ECMWF BLAND VERY WEAK RIDGE ACROSS SW N ATLC CENTERED ON 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 26N67W SITUATED SPATIALLY TO PRODUCE FRESH TRADES ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES W AND NW PORTIONS...AND FRESHENING TRADES E AND SE PORTIONS AS WEAK LOW LAT AEW APPROACHES. BUOY 42058 ONLY 7 FT ATTM AND SUGGESTS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CONFINED BELOW 13-14N. HIGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NE WHILE RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND WED-THU AND WILL TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS PER GFS...AND EXPAND FRESH TRADES NWD TO 16-17N...AND ALSO ALLOW FOR NOCTURNAL WIND MAX TO 30 KT OFF COLOMBIA NEXT FEW NIGHTS. ATLC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE WHILE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS WWD INTO GULF...AND BROADEN FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN FRI THROUGH WEEKEND...AND INDUCE PULSING TRADES TO 25 KT IN GULF OF HONDURAS. WEAK LOW LAT AEW ENTERING S PORTIONS OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH BROAD ZONE OF 15-20 KT TRADES ACROSS N PORTIONS TO ABOUT 15N ATTM...PER RECENT ASCAT PASS...AND SEAS 7-9 FT BEHIND IT AND AHEAD OF NEXT LARGE AMP AEW MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC. FIRST WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS S PORTIONS NEXT FEW DAYS AND DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW VIA TRADITIONAL NWP GUIDANCE...AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN PROGS. BUT THIS WAVE WILL AID IN ENHANCING MESOSCALE WINDS AS IT MOVES THROUGH SRN CARIB THU-FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECEDING TROUGH SWEEPING SLOWLY SE THROUGH NE PORTIONS TODAY...WHILE WEAK 1020 MB HIGH SITUATED TO THE SW NEAR 26N67W AND PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TODAY. NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH ACROSS FL INDUCING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS S FL AND N HALF OF BAHAMAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT NE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. HIGH TO SHIFT SLOWLY NE WHILE RIDGE SLOWLY EXPANDS AND BUILDS SW ACROSS THE REGION THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND WILL FRESHEN THE E TO ESE TRADES S OF 22N INTO THE SRN BAHAMAS. GFS SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING ANOTHER SPURIOUS LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND LIFTING IT NWD...AND WILL USE ECENS- GEFS CONSENSUS AS STARTING POINT BEYOND MON. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.