000 AGXX40 KNHC 100537 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 137 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH IS GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A QUASI-STATIONARY RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM CENTRAL FL TO THE NE TX/SW LA BORDER. A SURFACE HIGH WILL OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FAR SE GULF WATERS AS A N TO S ORIENTATED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE FL PENINSULA DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF WATERS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH WITH 5-10 KT FLOW EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH WED. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON WED NIGHT INCREASING THE SE-S FLOW ACROSS THE NW WATERS TO 10-15 KT...WITH THESE WESTERN GULF RETURN FLOW WINDS INCREASING EACH NIGHT TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS OF 3-6 FT...BEGINNING ON THU NIGHT. ANTICYCLONIC 10-15 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH IS GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO INCREASE THE EASTERLY FLOW TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ON FRI AND SAT WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 15-20 KT CONDITIONS. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 12N ALONG ALONG 73W WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH THU BUT ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY THE SLIGHTEST NE-E-SE WIND SHIFT NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 11N ALONG 53W WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS S OF 12N BETWEEN 55-65W TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND PASS THROUGH THE SE CARIBBEAN ON WED THROUGH THU...REACHING THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN ON THU NIGHT AND FRI...AND MOVE INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN ON SAT. CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 08N. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY T THE S OF 15N ALONG 34W WILL PASS THE SOUTHERN TROPICAL ATLC WATERS BETWEEN 55-65W ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT. CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE TO THE S OF 10N. OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT. THE AFFECTED AREA WILL EXPAND N ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TO THE S OF 18N LATE EACH NIGHT...AND THEN SHRINK TO THE S OF 15N DURING THE DAYTIME. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES... WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY 15-20 KT CONDITIONS...WITH SEAS OF 3-6 FT...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THIS EVENING INCREASING THE EASTERLY FLOW BRIEFLY TO 20- 25 KT WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH IS GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE. A WEAK COLD FRONT...OR TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM 31N55W TO 27N62W WILL CONTINUE MOVING E AND PASS E OF 55W ON WED NIGHT. THE TROUGH IS PRECEDED BY SW 15 KT FLOW TO THE N OF 29N WITHIN 600 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...BUT ONLY W-NW 10-15 KT FLOW TO THE N OF 30N WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE TROUGH. AN ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING NW FROM 24N55W TO THE NW BAHAMAS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT N TODAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE RIDGE NEAR 25N62W THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT N ALONG THE STATIONARY RIDGE AXIS TO 26N65W EARLY THU AND TO NEAR 29N65W ON THU NIGHT. THE HIGH CENTER WILL LOSE IDENTITY FRI AS THE RIDGE BECOMES ORIENTATED FROM NE TO SW FROM 31N60W TO THE NW BAHAMAS LATE FRI...AND FROM 31N62W TO PORT CANAVERAL LATE SAT. ASSOCIATED WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 20 KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.