000 AGXX40 KNHC 091846 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 246 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: VERY SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH IS GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MEANDERING NEAR 26N84W WITH A QUASI- STATIONARY RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO THE NE TX/SW LA BORDER. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL OCCASIONALLY LOSE IDENTITY IN THE RIDGE AS A N TO S TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DISSIPATES AND THE ATLC RIDGE REBUILDS W ACROSS FL AND MERGES WITH THE EXISTING GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF WATERS HAS INCREASED TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY EARLY TUE SUPPORTING A 10-15 KT FLOW THROUGH TUE NIGHT...FURTHER RELAXING WITH A 5-10 KT FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF ON WED...THEN INCREASING AGAIN TO 10-15 KT ON WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU. EXPECTING THE GRADIENT TO INCREASE AGAIN SUPPORTING 15-20 KT ON THU NIGHT THROUGH AND SAT NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE TIMING OF THE DEVELOPMENT BEING DELAYED WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET CONTINUE TO SHOW NO INDICATION OF A LOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEIGHT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST/GRIDS TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: VERY SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH IS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND EARLY AND MOSTLY ECMWF IN THE LATER PERIODS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 13N ALONG ALONG 70W WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY...TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE...AND THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN ON TUE NIGHT...WED AND THU. THE ONLY RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER S AMERICA...AND ONLY THE SLIGHTEST NE-E-SE WIND SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF 13N AS THE WAVE AXIS PASSES. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 12N ALONG 48W WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS S OF 13N BETWEEN 55-65W ON TUE AND WED ...AND PASS THROUGH THE SE CARIBBEAN ON WED NIGHT AND THU... REACHING THE CENTRAL PORTION ON FRI AND SAT. A THIRD AND MORE AMPLIFIED TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 31W WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ON WED NIGHT AND THU...AND THEN THROUGH THE SE CARIBBEAN ON FRI AND SAT. OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES THROUGH FRI ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT. THE AFFECTED AREA WILL EXPAND N ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TO THE S OF 18N LATE EACH NIGHT AND THEN SHRINK TO THE S OF 15N DURING THE DAYTIME. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES...WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT UP TO 8 FT IN THE SOUTHERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC TODAY. MEANWHILE EASTERLY 10-15 KT CONDITIONS...WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FT...OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THIS EVENING INCREASING THE EASTERLY FLOW TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE PATTERN WILL REPEAT ON TUE EVENING AS THE GRADIENT THEN SUPPORTS A SWATH OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-19N W OF 80W. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI AND SAT WHEN THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE WITH LOCAL AREAS OF 20-25 KT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 15-20 KT SWATH ON FRI NIGHT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO INCREASE THE EASTERLY FLOW TO 25-30 KT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ON FRI AND DEVELOPS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO BE DELAYED WITH EACH NEW GFS RUN. THE ECMWF AND UKMET REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH NOT SHOWING ANY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS AND THE FORECAST/GRIDS WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: VERY SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH IS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND EARLY AND MOSTLY ECMWF IN THE LATER PERIODS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 31N61W TO 30N65W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO 30N73W. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE THE STATIONARY PORTION DISSIPATES. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 25N TO 30N E OF 70W. AN ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING E TO W ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ALONG 26N WILL REBUILD FROM 24N55W TO 31N81W THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE RIDGE NEAR 27N65W TUE NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MEANDER IN THE SAME AREA THROUGH LATE THU... THEN WILL SHIFT N ON FRI AS THE RIDGE BECOMES POSITIONED FROM NE TO SW FROM 31N65W TO THE NW BAHAMAS. THE EASTERLIES WELL S OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE LATE TUE TO 15 KT WITH PULSES TO 20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT...ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC APPROACH TO WINDWARD PASSAGE ON TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.