000 AGXX40 KNHC 090808 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 140 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014 ...UPDATED SW N ATLC... MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: VERY SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH IS GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER...THUS MUCH HIGHER PERCENTAGES OF ECMWF USED FOR THE OFFICIAL GRIDS. HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MEANDERING NEAR 27N86W WITH A QUASI- STATIONARY RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO THE NE TX/SW LA BORDER. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL OCCASIONALLY LOSE IDENTITY IN THE RIDGE AS A N TO S TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DISSIPATES AND THE ATLC RIDGE REBUILDS W ACROSS FL AND MERGES WITH THE EXISTING GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF WATERS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 90W. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THEREAFTER SUPPORTING A 10-15 KT FLOW THROUGH TUE NIGHT...FURTHER RELAXING WITH A 5-10 KT FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF ON WED...THEN INCREASING AGAIN TO 10-15 KT ON WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU. EXPECTING THE GRADIENT TO INCREASE AGAIN SUPPORTING 15-20 KT ON THU NIGHT THROUGH AND FRI NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: VERY SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH IS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND EARLY AND MOSTLY ECMWF IN THE LATER PERIODS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO INCREASE THE EASTERLY FLOW TO 25-30 KT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ON FRI AND DEVELOPS A CYCLONE LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THIS GFS SOLUTION IS CURRENTLY THE OUTLIER. THE OTHER GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGEST THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE PERIOD. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 13N ALONG ALONG 67W WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY...TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE... AND THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN ON TUE NIGHT...WED AND THU. THE ONLY RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER S AMERICA...AND ONLY THE SLIGHTEST NE-E-SE WIND SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF 13N AS THE WAVE AXIS PASSES. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 10N ALONG 47W WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS S OF 11N BETWEEN 55-65W ON TUE AND WED ...AND PASS THROUGH THE SE CARIBBEAN ON WED NIGHT AND THU... REACHING THE CENTRAL PORTION ON FRI AND SAT. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 38W WILL PASS THE SOUTHERN TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ON WED NIGHT AND THU...AND PASS THROUGH THE SE CARIBBEAN ON FRI AND SAT. OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES THROUGH FRI ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT. THE AFFECTED AREA WILL EXPAND N ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TO THE S OF 18N LATE EACH NIGHT AND THEN SHRINK TO THE S OF 15N DURING THE DAYTIME. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES...WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY 10-15 KT CONDITIONS...WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FT... ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THIS EVENING INCREASING THE EASTERLY FLOW TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS OF 5- 7 FT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE PATTERN WILL REPEAT ON TUE EVENING AS THE GRADIENT THEN SUPPORTS A SWATH OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-19N W OF 80W. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRI WHEN THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE WITH LOCAL AREAS OF 20-25 KT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SWATH ON FRI NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: A VERY SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH IS GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE. A TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM 31N69W TO 28N78W WILL CONTINUE E REACHING FROM 31N57W TO 27N62W TONIGHT. THE TROUGH IS PRECEDED BY SW 15-20 KT FLOW TO THE N OF 29N WITHIN ABOUT 360 NM E OF THE TROUGH...AND W-NW 10-15 KT FLOW N OF 30N WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE TROUGH. THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLC WATERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 55-65W ON TUE AND WED WITH ALL THE EFFECTS SHIFTED E OF 55W BY THU AFTERNOON. AN ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING E TO W ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ALONG 26N WILL REBUILD FROM 24N55W TO 31N81W LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE RIDGE NEAR 27N65W LATE TUE. THE HIGH WILL MEANDER IN THE SAME AREA THROUGH LATE THU...THEN SHIFT N ON FRI AS THE RIDGE BECOMES ORIENTATED FROM NE TO SW FROM 31N65W TO THE NW BAHAMAS. THE EASTERLIES WELL S OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE LATE TUE TO 15 KT WITH PULSES TO 20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT...ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC APPROACH TO WINDWARD PASSAGE ON TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.