000 AGXX40 KNHC 081836 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 236 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN ECMWF BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MEANDERING NEAR 26N85W WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO THE NE TX/SW LA BORDER. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER THE NE GULF WATERS THROUGH TUE WITH THE RIDGE ALSO REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY TO THE NW COASTAL WATERS. SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW GULF WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING E ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TO THE W OF 89W ON MON NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THEREAFTER SUPPORTING A 10-15 KT FLOW THROUGH TUE NIGHT...FURTHER RELAXING WITH A 5-10 KT FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF ON WED...THEN INCREASING AGAIN TO 10-15 KT ON WED NIGHT AND THU...AND FURTHER INCREASING TO 15-20 KT THU NIGHT AND FRI OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE WEEK...LIFTING IT TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY LATE FRI NIGHT WHICH IS A SLOWER PROGRESSION THAN THE PAST RUNS. THIS CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER AND WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF/UKMET FORECAST WHICH IS STATUS QUO. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN ECMWF BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO THE S OF 13N THIS AFTERNOON...THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND MON...AND THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. EXPECT A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARDS AND THEN THE A-B-C ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY MON. OTHERWISE...ONLY THE SLIGHTEST NE-E-SE WIND SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF 13N AS THE WAVE AXIS PASSES. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 13N ALONG 42W WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS S OF 12N BETWEEN 55-65W ON WED AND THU...AND ENTER THE SE CARIBBEAN ON FRI WITH ONLY THE SLIGHTEST EVIDENCE AT THE SURFACE. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES THROUGH MON ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON MON NIGHT WITH THE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING N ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS S OF 18N...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. THE RESULTANT E SWELL WILL PRODUCE SEAS TO 8 FT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 11-18N AS FAR W AS 79W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY 10-15 KT CONDITIONS WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT INCREASING THE EASTERLY FLOW TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT. EXPECTING ANOTHER PULSE TO 20-25 KT IN THE GULF HONDURAS ON MON EVENING AND MON NIGHT...OTHERWISE THE 15-20 KT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO INCREASE THE EASTERLY FLOW TO 25-30 KT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ON THU AND FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING TO UP TO 14 FT...AND DEVELOPS A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON FRI NIGHT. THIS GFS SOLUTION REMAINS THE OUTLIER...AND WILL BE DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HINTS AT THE GRADIENT SUPPORTING 15-20 KT ON FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NW WATERS EXTENDING FROM NEAR 30N/31N AT 75W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH FL WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...AND WITH A WIND SHIFT EVIDENT AT NDBC BUOY 41010 AND NE FL. THIS TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A PARENT 1009 MB LOW N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N68W WHICH EXTENDS A COLD FRONT TO 31N75W CONTINUING AS STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOW COUNTRY. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE THE EASTERN PORTION MOVES E TO POSITION FROM 31N66W TO 30N75W THIS EVENING... MOVING E OF THE AREA MON. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A SW-W-NW 5-15 KT WIND SHIFT EARLY TODAY...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUPPORTING SW 15-20 KT FLOW WITHIN 420 NM E OF THE FRONT BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GRADIENT RELAXING AGAIN BY SUNRISE MON. AN ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 29N55W THROUGH 26N65W TO 27N77W. A NEW/REINFORCING RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM 24N55W TO 31N81W ON MON...THEN GRADUALLY BECOME ORIENTED FROM NE TO SW ALONG 31N63W TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON WED THROUGH FRI. THE EASTERLIES WELL S OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT...WITH PULSES TO 20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT...ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC APPROACH TO WINDWARD PASSAGE ON TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.