000 AGXX40 KNHC 080519 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 119 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MEANDERING NEAR 28N85W WITH A QUASI- STATIONARY RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO THE NE TX/SW LA BORDER. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MEANDER OVER THE NE GULF WATERS THROUGH TUE WITH THE RIDGE ALSO REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY TO THE NE COASTAL PLAINS. SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW GULF WATERS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING E ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TO THE W OF 89W ON MON NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THEREAFTER SUPPORTING A 10-15 KT FLOW THROUGH TUE NIGHT...FURTHER RELAXING WITH A 5-10 KT FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF ON WED...THEN INCREASING AGAIN TO 10-15 KT ON WED NIGHT AND THU...AND FURTHER INCREASING TO 15-20 KT THU NIGHT AND FRI OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: SMALL PERCENTAGE OF LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO THE S OF 13N TODAY...THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND MON...AND THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. EXPECT A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARDS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...ONLY THE SLIGHTEST NE-E-SE WIND SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF 13N AS THE WAVE AXIS PASSES. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 11N ALONG 38W WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS S OF 12N BETWEEN 55- 65W ON WED AND THU...AND ENTER THE SE CARIBBEAN ON FRI WITH ONLY THE SLIGHTEST EVIDENCE AT THE SURFACE. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES THROUGH MON ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS OF 8- 11 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON MON NIGHT WITH THE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING N ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS S OF 18N...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. THE RESULTANT E SWELL WILL PRODUCE SEAS TO 8 FT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 11-18N AS FAR W AS 79W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES...WITH SEAS OF 5- 7 FT...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY 10-15 KT CONDITIONS...WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FT... ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING THE EASTERLY FLOW TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT. EXPECTING ANOTHER PULSE TO 20-25 KT IN THE GULF HONDURAS ON MON EVENING AND MON NIGHT...OTHERWISE THE 15-20 KT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE GFS INCREASING THE EASTERLY FLOW TO 25-30 KT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ON THU AND FRI AND DEVELOPS A CYCLONE ON FRI NIGHT. THIS GFS SOLUTION IS CURRENTLY THE OUTLIER...AND WILL BE DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HINTS AT THE GRADIENT SUPPORTING 15-20 KT ON FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AN ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 28N55W TO 26N80W THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY S ACROSS THE WATERS E OF 70W TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ALONG 31N BETWEEN 74-80W...CONTINUES SE REACHING FROM 31N72W TO 27N80W THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A SW-W-NW 5-15 KT WIND SHIFT EARLY TODAY... THEN THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUPPORTING SW 15-20 KT FLOW WITHIN 420 NM E OF THE FRONT BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GRADIENT RELAXING AGAIN BY SUNRISE MON. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT TO THE S OF 29N WILL LOSE IDENTITY TONIGHT...WHILE THE SEGMENT TO THE N OF 28N CONTINUES E PASSING THROUGH THE WATERS BETWEEN 65-70W ON MON AND TUE. THE FRONT WILL BE RE-ENFORCED ON TUE NIGHT...AND REACH POSITION FORM 28N55W TO 25N63W ON WED...AND MOVE E OF 55W ON THU. A SE TO NW RIDGE WILL REBUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM 24N55W TO 31N81W ON MON...THEN GRADUALLY BECOME ORIENTATED FROM NE TO SW ALONG 31N63W TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON WED THROUGH FRI. THE EASTERLIES WELL S OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT...WITH PULSES TO 20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT...ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC APPROACH TO WINDWARD PASSAGE ON TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.