000 AGXX40 KNHC 071843 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 243 PM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1008 MB LOW PRES IS INLAND OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO WITH AN ATTENDANT TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE N-NE INTO THE W CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR 23.5N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SW GULF WATERS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT W AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WHILE WINDS AND SEAS IN THE FAR SW GULF DIMINISH/SUBSIDE IN ITS WAKE. A FRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED THROUGH THE NE GULF WATERS WITH A WIND SHIFT INDICATED AT THE NE GULF BUOYS AND FL METAR STATIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITH ITS PASSAGE WHICH HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED. OTHERWISE...1021 MB HIGH PRES IS LOCATED IN THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N89W WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE RETURN FLOW AND 3-5 FT SEAS OVER THE SW HALF OF THE GULF...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS IN THE NE HALF OF THE GULF. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE NE WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE NE TX COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW WATERS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ON SUN EVENING...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING E ACROSS THE GULF WATERS W OF 89W ON MON NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THEREAFTER SUPPORTING 10-15 KT FLOW THROUGH TUE NIGHT...AND 5-10 KT FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF ON WED AND THU. THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP LOW PRES IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ON THU APPROACHING THE SE GULF WATERS FRI. THE GFS SOLUTION IS CURRENTLY THE OUTLIER AND WILL BE DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL THROUGH TUE...THEN A ECMWF BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE...THEN LOW-MEDIUM. A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 14N ALONG 60W WILL PASS THROUGH THE WINDWARDS THROUGH TONIGHT...THROUGH THE SE CARIBBEAN ON SUN THROUGH MON...AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING MID WEEK. ENHANCED RAINFALL IS OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND THE SOUTHERN WINDWARDS WITH ITS PASSAGE. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE WILL DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ONLY THE SLIGHTEST NE-E-SE WIND SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF 12N/13N. A SECOND LOW-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 10N ALONG 37W WILL PASS THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WED AND THU. ATLC HIGH PRES WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH THE RESULTANT E SWELL PRODUCING 7-9 FT SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 11-17N AS FAR W AS 79W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES...WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY 10-15 KT CONDITIONS WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. THEN THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SUN EVENING INCREASING THE FLOW TO 15-20 KT THROUGH LATE MON WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT. EXPECTING ANOTHER PULSE TO 20-25 KT IN THE GULF HONDURAS ON MON NIGHT...OTHERWISE 15-20 KT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE GFS DEVELOPS LOW PRES IN THE NW CARIBBEAN THU...THEN LIFTS IT N THROUGH FRI WITH AT LEAST 30 KT APPROACHING SOUTHERN CUBA. THE ECMWF AND UKMET DO NOT AGREE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW AND THUS THE GFS WILL BE DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FRONTAL TROUGH MOVED INTO THE NW WATERS THIS MORNING BRINING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE W-NW IN ITS WAKE. THIS TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A PARENT LOW N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N76W WHICH ALSO HAS A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOW COUNTRY. THE LOW AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY N OF 31N (THE FRONT MAY DIP JUST S OF 31N WHILE THE LOW MOVES E)...WHILE THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SCRAPE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...PUSHING E OF 65W ON MON. SW WINDS AT 10-15 KT JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND FRONT MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20 KT E OF 70W. OTHERWISE...AN ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 28N65W TO 26N80W WILL SHIFT S TO ALONG 26N ON SUN THEN BACK N TO ALONG 28N BY TUE THROUGH WED. BEYOND THAT UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS OVER THE SW PORTION WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 22N ALONG WITH 3-5 FT SEAS WHICH WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT N OF 27N MON NIGHT-THU...WITH 0-2 FT SEAS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS THROUGHOUT. S OF 22N...EASTERLIES WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC APPROACH TO WINDWARD PASSAGE ON WED AND THU. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.