000 AGXX40 KNHC 070522 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 122 AM EDT SAT JUN 7 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A ECMWF/GFS BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED INLAND MEXICO NEAR 19N96W. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT E-SE 20-30 KT WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS MORNING. WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4-7 FT. WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT/SEAS 3-5 FT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SUN. HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 27N84W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO THE NE TX COAST. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MEANDER OVER THE NE WATERS THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE ALSO QUASI-STATIONARY TO THE NE TX COAST. SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW WATERS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE 15-20 KT ON SUN EVENING...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING E ACROSS THE GULF WATERS W OF 89W ON MON NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THEREAFTER SUPPORTING 10-15 KT FLOW THROUGH TUE NIGHT...AND 5-10 KT FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF ON WED AND THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A ECMWF/GFS BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS TO THE S OF 13N TODAY AND THROUGH THE SE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND SUN...TROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SUN NIGHT AND MON...AND THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN MID WEEK. ENHANCED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN TROPICAL WATERS AND THE SOUTHERN WINDWARDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ONLY THE SLIGHTEST NE-E-SE WIND SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF 12N. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 12N ALONG 33W WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS S OF 12N BETWEEN 55-65W ON WED AND THU. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH THE RESULTANT E SWELL PRODUCING 7-9 FT SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 11-18N AS FAR W AS 79W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES...WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY 10-15 KT CONDITIONS WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. THEN THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SUN EVENING INCREASING THE FLOW TO 15-20 KT THROUGH LATE MON WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT. EXPECTING ANOTHER PULSE TO 20-25 KT IN THE GULF HONDURAS ON MON NIGHT...OTHERWISE 15-20 KT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT THEN DIMINISH SOME ON THU. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A ECMWF/GFS BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AN ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 31N55W TO 26N80W THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT S ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS REACHING FROM 31N77W TO 27N80W THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A SW-W-NW 5-15 KT WIND SHIFT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT...AND SUGGESTS IT WILL CONTINUE E ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS N OF 27N TONIGHT AND SUN. THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON WHEN THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH ALONG POSITION 31N66W TO 29N72W. REMNANTS OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE N OF 28N E OF 65W ON MON NIGHT...AND DISSIPATE BETWEEN 60W-55W ON TUE. THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND E TO W ALONG 27N ON SUN NIGHT AND MON. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR 26N62W ON TUE WITH THE RIDGE THEN EXTENDING NW TO 31N80W AND BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY. THE EASTERLIES WELL S OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT...ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC APPROACH TO WINDWARD PASSAGE ON WED AND THU. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION NEAR 19N96W. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.