000 AGXX40 KNHC 061828 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 229 PM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES REMAINS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CURRENTLY ANALYZED AS AT 1004 MB NEAR 19.5N96W. CONVECTION INCREASED THIS MORNING... THEN THE CENTER BECAME COMPLETELY EXPOSED WITH ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO THE E OF THE CENTER WITH CONVECTION MOVING EVEN MORE AWAY FROM THE CENTER AS TIME GOES BY AND WITH CLOUD TOPS ALSO WARMING. AN AIRCRAFT IS STILL SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS THE LOW LINGERING OVER THE SAME AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE BOTH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MOVE THE LOW INLAND NO LATER THAN 00 UTC SUN WHICH IN ITSELF IS LIKELY TOO SLOW GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. THE LATEST DATA STILL SUPPORT 20-30 KT WINDS WITHIN 150 NM IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW...WITH SEAS OF 8-12 FT. THE LOW STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE PRIOR TO MOVING INLAND. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 5-7 FT SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE SW GULF... DIMINISHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. TO THE N...AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS BETWEEN 27-28N EXTENDS FROM A 1016 MB HIGH CENTER IN THE NE GULF NEAR 28N86W. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT E ALONG THE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND. MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN OVER THE NW WATERS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO FRESH ON SUN EVENING INTO EARLY MON...AND THEN AGAIN MON EVENING INTO EARLY TUE WITH PRESSURES LOWERING OVER TEXAS INCREASING THE GRADIENT TO THE SE. GENTLE E-SE WINDS AND 0-2 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE E GULF...WITH MODERATE SE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. ATLC HIGH PRES IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND RESULTANT SEAS OF 8-11 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH E SWELL PRODUCING 8 FT SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 11-17N AS FAR W AS 81W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND SEAS AT 5-7 FT CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TRADES WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FT CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXCEPT PULSES OF 20-25 KT INCREASING SEAS 5-8 FT EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SAT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT WHILE SPREADING ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 21N W OF 85W LATE MON THROUGH TUE...THEN DIMINISHING WED. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY S OF 12N ALONG 51W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AHEAD OF IT S OF 10N. FRESH WINDS AND 7-9 FT SEAS ACCOMPANY THE WAVE AND WILL BRIEFLY MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH SAT WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE...DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING ON SAT EVENING AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN S AMERICA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH SAT NIGHT WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 24N72W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG WITH SUPPORTING MID- UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MAINTAINS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE S CENTRAL AND SE WATERS. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE FROM 31N65W TO 28N80W EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT S AND EXTEND FROM 28N65W TO 26N80W BY SUNRISE SAT...WITH LITTLE CHANCE THROUGH SUN MORNING...GRADUALLY SHIFTING N FROM 28.5N65W TO 28N80W BY SUNRISE TUE. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE-S WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL N OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS S OF THE RIDGE EXCEPT 0-2 FT INSIDE THE BAHAMAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.