000 AGXX40 KNHC 060523 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 123 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A ECMWF/GFS BLEND. LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO LOW SW GULF. AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS BETWEEN 27-28N. A SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE NEAR 27N85W TODAY AND SHIFT E ALONG THE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND. MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN OVER THE NW WATERS WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY TO FRESH ON SUN EVENING INTO MON. BROAD LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CURRENTLY ANALYZED AS A 1004 MB QUASI- STATIONARY SURFACE LOW NEAR 19N94.5W. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...LATEST SCATTEROMETER WINDS SUGGEST THE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING 20-30 KT WINDS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE LOW...WITH SEAS OF 8-12 FT. OTHERWISE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE SW GULF WITH SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WNW TODAY...POSSIBLY INTENSIFYING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...BEFORE REACHING THE MEXICAN COAST IN A FEW DAYS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A ECMWF/GFS BLEND. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES... SEAS OF 8-11 FT...ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH E SWELL PRODUCING 8 FT SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 11-18N AS FAR W AS 80W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES...SEAS 5-7 FT...CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS. MODERATE TRADES...WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FT...CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT PULSES OF 20-25 KT...INCREASING SEAS 5-8 FT...EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT WHILE SPREADING ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 21N W OF 85W LATE MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A ECMWF/GFS BLEND. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE FROM 31N63W TO 31N80W THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT S FROM 31N55W TO 26N80W LATE TONIGHT...AND FROM 27N55W TO 24N80W ON SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR 27N64W ON MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO 26N80W. FRESH SW WINDS...WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FT N OF THE RIDGE AXIS THIS MORNING...WILL DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO MODERATE...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING A LITTLE TO 2-4 FT. LITTLE CHANGE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MODERATE EASTERLIES...WITH SEAS 3-5 FT E OF BAHAMAS AND 1-3 FT W OF BAHAMAS...WILL CONTINUE S OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT FRESH EASTERLIES...WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT...FORECAST ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE ATLANTIC APPROACH TO WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH SAT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION SW GULF. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.