000 AGXX40 KNHC 051800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF- GFS BLEND. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE SW WATERS WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE NE WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF WATERS E OF THE LOW WITH SEAS REACHING NEAR 9 FT. OTHERWISE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE SW GULF WITH SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS WITH SEAS IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND 3-5 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW SHIFTING IT NW INTO MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS. WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE NE GULF WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NE GULF AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF E OF THE TROUGH. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC. SEAS ARE IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...4-6 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...4-7 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 5-8 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH STRONG WINDS S OF 15N PULSING TO NEAR 30 KT OFF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AND START TO RETREAT EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY DIMINISH TRADES BRIEFLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE ONCE AGAIN INCREASING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK N OF THE AREA. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE SW WATERS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT NEAREST THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 29N WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WATERS AND IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WATERS. SEAS WEST OF THE BAHAMAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE. THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT W-NW THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND INTO STRAITS OF FLORIDA FRI. OTHERWISE...E ATLC RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PRODUCE FRESH TRADES OVER THE SE WATERS...THEN BEGIN TO RETREAT EASTWARD SUN-MON AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAGS ACROSS THE WATERS JUST N OF AREA. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY DIMINISH TRADES SUN AND MON. THE RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA MON WHICH WILL FRESHEN TRADES OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.