000 AGXX40 KNHC 050820 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 420 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH DAY 3 THEN ECMWF- GFS BLEND. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A LLVL TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE W GULF WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN PAST 24 HOURS PER STLT AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY. LOW ALSO WAS DEPICTED BY LATEST ASCAT PASSES SHOWING 10-15 KT WINDS. DEEP CONVECTIVE BLOWUP TO THE NE OF LOW DEPICTED BY ASCAT WITH E TO ESE WINDS 15-25 KT...WHILE BUOY 42055 REMAINING NEAR 6 FT. OBS ALONG VERACRUZ HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW N TO NNW WINDS AROUND 20 KT FOR PAST 24 HOURS...AND LLVL TROFFING PERSISTS FROM LOW NW TOWARDS CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST...WHILE SECONDARY TROUGH MAY BE PRESENT OFF THE NW COAST OF YUCATAN AND CONTRIBUTOR TO THIS CONVECTIVE BLOWUP. WELL AFTER DAYS OF BEING THE OUTLIER...THE GFS IS FINALLY COMING BACK IN LINE WITH OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...AND KEEPING LLVL TROFFING ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH ANY REMAINING LOW ALONG THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT NW AND INLAND BY SAT OR SUN. WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS NE GULF DURING THIS TIME WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ACROSS S CENTRAL AND W PORTIONS OF BASIN...TO THE NE OF THE LLVL TROFFING...WHERE SEAS WILL REMAIN 5-7 FT. BEYOND THE WEEKEND...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS LLVL TROFFING WILL SHIFT W AND INLAND ACROSS MEXICO...WHILE RIDGE WILL SINK SWD TO ALONG 26N AND PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S FLOW ACROSS W AND NW PORTIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH TUE. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED CONSIDERABLY SUCH THAT WE HAVE BEGUN TO BLEND GFS BACK INTO WIND FCST THROUGH DAY 6. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE N OF AREA HAS BEGUN TO COLLAPSE AND DRIFT N WITH REMNANTS OF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ATLC AND BAHAMAS...AND E ATLC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SLOWLY INTO THIS AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG TRADES OFF COLOMBIA TO NEAR 30 KT...WHILE FRESH TRADES ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS HAVE EXPANDED NWD TO 14-15N. BUOY 42058 SHOWING SEAS INCREASING FROM 6 FT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT TO NOW 9 FT. FRESH WINDS IN GULF OF HONDURAS PULSING TO 20-25 KT CURRENTLY...BUT MODELS HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY OVER NEXT FEW DAYS AND NOT SHOWING THIS PULSING TO 25 KT THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS. SAL WITH AND BEHIND RECENT AEW THAT MOVED INTO CENTRAL AMERICA HAS ALSO REACHED NICARAGUA COASTAL WATERS PER RECENT TPW ANIMATIONS...AND SHOULD SHOW UP IN 12Z SOUNDINGS TODAY. E ATLC RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SE AND BUILD ACROSS SW N ATLC TO FL NEXT FEW DAYS AND MAINTAIN FRESH TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BASIN WITH STRONG WINDS S OF 15N PULSING TO NEAR 30 KT OFF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. GFS AGAIN FORECASTING DEVELOPING LLVL VORT ACROSS YUCATAN MON-TUE THAT LIFTS NWD INTO SE GULF...CAUSING FLOW ACROSS BASIN TO VEER ESE TO SE. AM DISCOUNTING THIS AND GOING WITH CONTINUED STRONG ELY FLOW PER LATEST ECMWF. AEW ALONG 44-45W ATTM WILL MOVE WWD AND ENTER TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE FRI AFTERNOON-EVENING AND ENTER SE CARIB SAT. FRESH WINDS WITH AND BEHIND WAVE WILL PRODUCE SEAS 8-9 FT WITH AND BEHIND WAVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ACTIVE CNVTN EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY WAVE S OF 12N. AN OLD VORT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE NOW ALONG 55W WILL MOVE WWD THROUGH S PORTIONS TODAY FOR SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF WINDS AND SEAS S PORTIONS. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND REMNANTS OF DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN ON STLT IMAGERY DRIFTING NWD ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 25N AND 26N WHILE MID LEVEL VORT ON TAIL END OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL BAHAMAS ACTING WITH CONVERGED MOISTURE THERE TO KICK OFF CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER TROUGH TO SWEEP E-SE ACROSS BAHAMAS TODAY AND SPREAD ACTIVE CONVECTION SE AHEAD OF IT. GFS NOW SHOWS LLVL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS S CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND E CUBA IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER TROUGH INTERACTION...AND WILL SHIFT W-NW NEXT 24 HOURS AND INTO STRAITS OF FL TONIGHT AND FRI. OTHERWISE...E ATLC RIDGE TO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PRODUCE FRESH TRADES OVER THE SE WATERS...THEN BEGIN TO RETREAT EASTWARD SUN-MON AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAGS ACROSS WATERS JUST N OF AREA...WHICH WILL SLIGHTLY DIMINISHING TRADES SUN AND MON...AND VEER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SE TO S. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.