000 AGXX40 KNHC 040833 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 433 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF-GFS BLEND. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES ACROSS FAR NW GULF WITH EMBEDDED LOW SHIFTING SW ACROSS NE MEXICO ATTM. BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION PREVAILS FROM TROPICAL EPAC ALONG 115W...E AND NE ACROSS SRN MEXICO AND INTO SRN GULF WHERE LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING. SFC LOW SUGGESTED BY OBS AND SILT NEAR 20.5N94W. A LLVL TROUGH LIKELY EXTENDS NE TO NEAR 23N92W WITH CONVERGENCE ON E SIDE YIELDING SCT DEEP CNVTN PERSISTING UNDER UPPER DIVERGENCE BETWEEN UPPER RIDGE TO E AND UPPER TROUGH TO NW. BUOY 42055 REPORTING ESE WINDS 20-25 KT PAST 2 HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT...BUT COULD BE CONVECTIVELY INFLUENCED. GLOBAL MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT LLVL LOW TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE MODELS BECOME DIVERGENT IN SOLUTIONS. ASSOCIATED TROUGHING IS SUGGESTED TO ROTATE NW TOWARD MEXICAN COAST WITH LLVL VORTEX SHIFTING NW AND TANDEM...TO SOME DEGREE...THROUGH FRI MORNING. GFS...UKMET...AND CMC THEN MAINTAIN A SIGNIFICANT VORTEX AT H85 THROUGH SAT...WITH UKMET MOVING INLAND ALONG CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THE MUCH WEAKER ECMWF...WHILE GFS REMAINS ADAMANT THAT LOW WILL LINGER IN BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE WEAKENING MONDAY AND VORT LOBE DEVELOPING TO THE NE ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND LIFTING N INTO SE GULF. ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR PROCESS...BUT FARTHER W AND WEAKER. THUS FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN BEYOND 72 HRS. GEFS MEAN CONTINUES TO RESEMBLE ECMWF SOLUTION THROUGH SUN...SO WE CONTINUE TO STRONGLY BLEND ECMWF WITH GFS FOR WIND FIELD. ATLC RIDGE NOSING WEAKLY INTO N FL AND N GULF COASTS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ACROSS ALL BUT SW PORTIONS OF GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS ACROSS NE SEMICIRCLE OF LLVL LOW TO PRODUCING PULSING E TO ESE WINDS 20 TO LOCALLY 25 KT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS 5 TO 7 FT POSSIBLY BUILDING TO 8 FT THERE. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS YUCATAN AND S CENTRAL PORTIONS THROUGH AT LEAST FRI. NDBC REPORTS BUOY 42003 HAS GONE ADRIFT JUST RECENTLY AND IS STILL TRANSMITTING. LARGE ANTICYCLONIC RING ACROSS ERN GULF SHOULD MOVE THIS BUOY SWIFTLY SE IN THE SHORT TERM. MAYBE KEYW WILL GET THEIR FIRST BUOY SOON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED SE TO NEAR 30N76W BEHIND STALLED ATLC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEARLY E TO W THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS INDUCING SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS BASIN TO PRODUCE STRONG TRADES ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS S OF 14N IN TRADITIONAL LOCATION OFF COLOMBIA AND WRN VENEZUELA...AND IN GULF OF HONDURAS SO OF 18N. ELSEWHERE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL AND ARE ESE TO SE ACROSS NW PORTIONS ATTM. SAL TRAILING PAIR OF AEW PAST FEW DAYS HAS MOVED BEYOND 80W...WITH WAVE ENERGY INLAND ACROSS NICARAGUA...AND ALSO MOVING THROUGH FAR SW CARIB. ATLC FRONTAL SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY LIFT N NEXT 36 HRS AND WASH OUT WHILE HIGH COLLAPSES AND BECOME ABSORBED IN E ATLC RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS SW N ATLC ALONG ABOUT 30N BY THU THEN SHIFT MORE SW INTO CENTRAL FL AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THOUGH WEEKEND. THIS TO STRENGTHEN PRES GRADIENT AND FRESHEN TRADES ACROSS MOST OF BASIN THU THROUGH WEEKEND...WITH NOCTURNAL WIND MAX OFF COLOMBIA LIKELY TO REACH 30 KT EACH NIGHT...AND SEAS BUILD 10-11 FT THERE. GULF OF HONDURAS WINDS ALSO TO REMAIN STRONG AND PULSE TO 25 KT AT NIGHT...WITH SEAS REMAINING NEAR 6-8 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES TO PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS S OF 18N THROUGH TODAY BEFORE ATLC RIDGE BUILDS WWD AND INTO SW N ATLC AND FRESHENS TRADES AND BRINGS A RETURN TO ELY WINDS N OF 18N. AEW ALONG 41/42W ATTM TO ENTER WATERS S OF 13-14N AROUND 00Z SAT WITH ENE TRADES INCREASING JUST AHEAD OF WAVE TO AROUND 20 KT ACROSS WATERS S OF 14N...ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WEATHER S OF 13-14N AS IT MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH REGION FRI NIGHT AND SAT. SEAS TO BUILD TO 8-9 FT BEHIND WAVE. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS FROM NEAR 22.5N65W INTO CENTRAL BAHAMAS ATTM...WITH 1018 MB HIGH HAVING SHIFTED SE TO NEAR 30N76W BEHIND FRONT. 15 TO LOCALLY 20 KT TRADES PERSIST THROUGH BAHAMAS INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SCATTERED RW+ AND ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG IT. WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS IN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ELSEWHERE ACROSS BASIN...WITH FADING NLY SWELL FROM ATLC GALE MOVING THROUGH WATERS. WW3 FORECAST VERY CLOSE PAST 36 HOURS WITH THIS SWELL...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY LOW WITH SWELL BETWEEN 65W AND BAHAMAS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO GRADUALLY LIFT N NEXT 36 HRS AND WASH OUT WHILE HIGH COLLAPSES AND BECOME ABSORBED IN E ATLC RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS REGION ALONG ABOUT 30N BY THU THEN SHIFT MORE SW INTO CENTRAL FL AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THOUGH WEEKEND. THIS TO FRESHEN TRADES S OF 22N ACROSS SE PORTIONS AND THROUGH SRN BAHAMAS AND PRODUCE MODERATE SE TO S FLOW ELSEWHERE...BECOMING S TO SW OFF FL COAST AS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SHIFTS OFF E COAST OF U.S. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.