000 AGXX40 KNHC 031825 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 225 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE SW GULF WATERS WITH A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NE OF THE LOW AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ELSEWHERE OVER THE SW GULF WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE OVER THE SW GULF WATERS AND IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE LINGERING IN THE GULF THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...THOUGH THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW WITH GFS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE UKMET AND THE ECMWF. MODELS FURTHER DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING THE LOW MEANDERING OVER THE SW GULF AND THE ECMWF AND UKMET DRIFTING THE LOW NW INTO MEXICO BY SAT. WITH GFS CONTINUING TO BE THE OUTLIER...HAVE CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTION WITH A WEAKER LOW MEANDERING OVER THE SW GULF THROUGH FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING N OF THE AREA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WINDS ARE IN THE LIGHT TO GENTLE RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND GENTLE TO MODERATE OVER THE SOUTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...4-7 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 5-7 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FURTHER ON THU WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THIS WILL FRESHEN TRADES ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN THROUGH SAT. THE ATLC RIDGE WILL START TO RETREAT EASTWARD SAT INTO SUN WHICH WILL SLIGHTLY LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED WINDS SUN. MODERATE LONG PERIOD N SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH WED. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BASIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE NW WATERS WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE OVER THE BASIN. NORTHERLY SWELLS ARE PRODUCING SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE OVER THE NE WATERS WHILE SEAS IN THE 6-7 FT RANGE PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE...ATLC RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ABSORBING THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS AND THE WATERS S OF 22N INTO SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE ATLC RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.