000 AGXX40 KNHC 030822 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 422 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF/NWPS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. UPPER LOW HAS BEGUN TO FILL AND WEAKEN AND NOW ALIGNED NE TO SW ACROSS NW GULF WHILE LLVL-SFC TROUGH SOMEWHAT ILL DEFINED AND CURRENTLY SUGGESTED BY STLT IMAGERY...OBS FROM BUOY 42055 AND RECENT ASCAT PASS TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE NE TO NEAR 24N92W. HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS S FL AND STRAITS IS MAINTAINING 15-20 KT ESE FLOW THROUGH STRAITS BUT NOT TIGHTENING GRADIENT ACROSS ADJACENT GULF WATERS. ASCAT PASS ALSO REVEALED ESE WINDS 15-20 KT OFF NW COAST OF YUCATAN AND ACROSS ERN HALF OF BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW LEVEL LOW TO DEVELOP WITHIN BASE OF LLVL TROUGH TODAY AND SHIFT SLOWLY NW AND GRADUALLY ELONGATE AND WEAKEN THROUGH WED. GFS STILL OVERLY AGGRESSIVE AND MUST CONTINUE TO DISCOUNT IT AS IT REMAINS THE OUTLIER OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHILE GEFS MEAN MAINTAINS A WEAK LLVL LOW TRAPPED IN THE RAT HOLE OR BAY OF CAMPECHE. HAVE THUS USED THE ECMWF STRONGLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND FINALLY HAVE OUTPUT THROUGH DAY 6 FROM NWPS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. WFO'S WOULD BE WELL ADVISED TO USE OUR GRIDS FOR INPUT IN YOUR NWPS. ELONGATED LLVL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE SW GULF AND ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST OR JUST INLAND WHERE COASTAL TROUGH NORMALLY RESIDES INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COUPLED WITH EPAC MONSOON MINI GYRE AND LLVL WIND MAX ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT AEW'S MOVING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS AND YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND ADJACENT BAY OF CAMPECHE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND W ATLC COLD FRONT HAS MOVED S TO ALONG 23N N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES...WHILE HIGH BEHIND FRONT IS SHIFTING INTO THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS IS PRODUCING MODERATE PRES GRADIENT DUE S OF NEW HIGH...AND ACROSS S CENTRAL CARIB OFF OF COLOMBIA...AND ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE...WINDS AND SEAS MODERATE ATTM...AND TRADES ONLY 10-15 KT AND SEAS 3-4 FT ACROSS NE CARIB. DEEP SAL LAYER HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE E AND MUCH OF CENTRAL CARIB JUST S OF HISPANIOLA...AND IS FORECAST TO RIDE OVER TRAILING AEW ALONG 73/74W ATTM AND DAM UP BEHIND LEADING WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO NICARAGUA NEXT 24-36 HOURS. WEAK HIGH ACROSS SW N ATLC WILL SHIFT SE TO ALONG 30N TONIGHT THEN COLLAPSE AND BECOME ABSORBED BY BUILDING ATLC RIDGE FROM THE NE WED THROUGH THU TO TIGHTEN GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN AND FRESHEN TRADES ACROSS MOST OF BASIN...BEFORE ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY SUN AND WINDS DIMINISH A BIT. MODERATE LONG PERIOD N SWELL WILL BEGIN MOVING THROUGH THE NE CARIB PASSAGES TODAY THROUGH WED. FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED S OF 14N THROUGH THU NIGHT BEFORE NEXT LARGER AMPLITUDE AEW APPROACHES FROM THE E WITH BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS WITH AND AHEAD OF WAVE THROUGH WEEKEND. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND COLD FRONT APPEARS TO QUASISTATIONARY ALONG ABOUT 23N ATTM AND EXTENDS THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND BECOME DIFFUSE INTO THE KEYS. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED MODERATELY ACROSS THE FL COAST IN PAST 6-12 HOURS BUT REMAIN FRESH ACROSS NW BAHAMAS AND INTO SE FL COASTAL WATERS ATTM WITH FOWEY ROCKS WITH HIGHEST WIND AT 17 KT CURRENTLY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO DRIFT NWD TONIGHT INTO WED AS HIGH SINKS SE TO ALONG 30N AND THEN COLLAPSES. ALTHOUGH WINDS DIMINISHING N OF FRONT...SEAS REMAIN 6-8 FT ACROSS OFFSHORE WATERS N THROUGH E OF BAHAMAS AS N TO NE LONG PERIOD SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH WATERS W OF 60W. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WW3 OUTPUT IS USED AGAIN FOR THIS PACKAGE. FRONT TO DRIFT N AS WEAK WARM FRONT LATE THU AND FRI AND BECOME DIFFUSE AS ATLC RIDGE BUILDS SW INTO THE AREA AND WINDS VEER SE TO S ACROSS ALL BUT SE PORTIONS...AHEAD OF FRONT SHIFTING OFF OF NE U.S. FRESH TRADES EXPECTED THROUGH SE BAHAMAS AND WATERS S OF 22N INTO SAT NIGHT BEFORE ATLC RIDGE NUDGED SE AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.