000 AGXX40 KNHC 021735 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 135 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND. CONFIDENCE MEDIUM WITH REGARDS TO STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE SW GULF. A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE SW GULF WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE OVER THE SW AND EASTERN GULF...WITH SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SW GULF WATERS BY MIDWEEK. THOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THU AND FRI...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW REMAINING FAIRLY WEAK AND MEANDERING OVER THE SW GULF THROUGH FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WAS N OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO RETREAT EASTWARD AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SHIFTS S OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAILING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...4-7 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 5-8 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH COVERAGE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES EXPANDING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 24N65W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS ARE IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE RANGE N OF THE FRONT AND LIGHT TO GENTLE RANGE S OF THE FRONT. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE N OF THE FRONT AND E OF THE BAHAMAS...3-5 FT RANGE S OF THE FRONT AND E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 2-4 FT RANGE W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 23N BY TUESDAY WHERE IT WILL STALL AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE WHILE DRIFTING BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH WESTWARD BUILDING ATLC RIDGE. ATLC GALE WARNING TO THE N OF THE AREA HAS GENERATED A HEALTHY SWELL FOR JUNE...WITH LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST WATERS. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD...REACHING ALL OF BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT AND THE N COASTS OF CARIB ISLANDS TUE MORNING. COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AS FAR S AS 26N AND THE EXTREME NW BAHAMAS TONIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.