000 AGXX40 KNHC 020827 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 427 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM. UPPER LOW ACROSS W HALF OF GULF BEGINNING TO BECOME CUT OFF FROM UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS MS VALLEY...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY FILL AND WEAKEN LATER TODAY THEN BECOME ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS AND TRANSITION TO TUTT LIKE FEATURE WED-THU. ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH IS SLIGHTLY W OF UPPER AXIS...AND WAS DEPICTED BY RECENT ASCAT PASS NNW TO SSE TILED INTO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THIS TROUGH AXIS ROTATING SLOWLY CYCLONICALLY TOWARD MEXICAN COAST NEXT 72 HOURS...WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT SFC LOW IN BAY OF CAMPECHE ONLY DEPICTED BY GFS. HIGH PRES RIDGING SW INTO GULF BEHIND W ATLC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE REASONABLE SIZED AREA OF 20 KT WINDS BETWEEN TROUGH AND HIGH AND CONFINED TO OFFSHORE OF YUCATAN PENINSULA TO ALONG NE FLANKS OF TROUGH. ASSOCIATED SEAS LIKELY TO PEAK AT 6-7 FT ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS THROUGH WED. BEYOND WED...LATEST ECMWF RUN IS STARTING TO RESEMBLE TO SOME DEGREE THE GFS...AND SHOWS PERSISTENT TROFFING SW GULF THROUGH FRI THEN H85 VORTEX LIFTING SLOWLY OUT OF BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN-MON...WITH STRONG LLVL WINDS ACROSS NW CARIB AND SE GULF AND LLVL PERTURBATION ROTATING NW ACROSS THE ERN SEMICIRCLE OF VORTEX. THUS IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS IS ON TO SOMETHING...JUST NOT AS FAST AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND IN MODERATE PORTION OF GFS WITH ECMWF ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. NWPS SHOULD PROVIDE REASONABLE FORECAST AS WELL BUT WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE BEYOND 120 HRS FOR THIS CYCLE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETREAT TO THE E AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS S ACROSS THE SW N ATLC...AND GRADIENT ACROSS THE NE CARIB THUS REMAINS WEAK ATTM. HOWEVER...HIGH BEHIND FRONT SHIFTING SE OFF MID ATLC COAST WITH RIDGING SW INTO FL AND THE NW BAHAMAS IS AIDING IN KEEPING MODERATE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS NW PORTIONS...FROM GULF OF HONDURAS TO YUCATAN CHANNEL AS RECENTLY DEPICTED BY ASCAT PASSES. SEAS CURRENTLY MUCH IN LINE WITH WW3 OUTPUT...EXPECT FOR NW PORTIONS BETWEEN 80W AND 84W WHERE WW3 IS ALMOST ALWAYS TOO HIGH. FRONT WILL SINK FURTHER S THROUGH 48 HOURS THEN STALL ALONG ABOUT 23N AND BEGIN TO DRIFT NWD BY 72 HRS. ASSOCIATED PRES GRADIENT WILL BE MAINTAINS ACROSS NW PORTIONS INCLUDING GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH WED...WHILE PEAK WINDS IN SRN CARIB FORECAST TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EWD...TO E OF 72W...AND DUE S OF HIGH TUE-WED. ATLC RIDGE TO THEN BUILD BACK INTO SW N ATLC AND BAHAMAS THU AND FRESHEN TRADES BASIN WIDE. A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS S AMERICA AND SRN CORRIDOR OF CARIB S OF 13N ATTM...WITH WAVES ROUGHLY ALONG 68/69W AND 75W...WITH LEADING WAVE SLOWING FORWARD PROGRESS. A VERY LARGE AREA OF SAL IS TRAILING SECOND WAVE AND FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS TOP OF THIS WAVE AND DAM UP ON BACK SIDE OF LEADING WAVE BY 48 HOURS. THIS SAL AND ASSOCIATED LLVL WIND SURGE ARE SUGGESTED BY GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE THROUGH NW CARIB AND INTO SE GULF DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAL WILL LIMIT AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND STABILIZE LOWER TROP DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND IS CURRENTLY ALREADY DOMINATING THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE N PORTIONS AND FRESH S PORTIONS THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND ATLC RIDGE RETREATING TO E AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SINK SWD ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS MOVES FRONT SWD TO NEAR 23N BY 48 HOURS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN TO N OF IT...THEN BEGINS TO DRIFT NWD AND WASH OUT BY 72 HRS. TIGHTENED GRADIENT HAS ALREADY BEEN SEEN ACROSS FL COASTAL WATERS PAST 8 HOURS...WITH WINDS AROUND 20 KT AND SEAS 6-8 FT SHIFTING SWD DOWN THE COASTLINE. BUOY 41009 HAS BEEN AT 8 FT PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND JUST DROPPED TO 7 FT WHILE 41010 ALSO JUST DROPPED TO 6 FT. THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT S WITH AND AHEAD OF FRONT DRAGGING ALONG FL COAST AND INTO SE WATERS THIS MORNING...AND STIR UP WATERS ACROSS BAHAMAS NOW THROUGH THU. GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ACROSS THESE WRN WATERS LATE TUE AS HIGH SHIFT SE TO NEAR 30N TUE NIGHT. HIGH THEN FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND BECOME ABSORBED IN BUILDING ATLC RIDGE...WITH FLOW VEERING SE TO S ACROSS MOST WATERS N OF 23N LATE WED THROUGH FRI AS NEXT FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES E COAST OF U.S. WINDS WILL FRESHEN THROUGH SRN BAHAMAS AND WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THIS TIME AS STRONG ATLC RIDGE PREVAILS. ATLC GALE TO N OF BERMUDA QUASISTATIONARY ATTM AND GENERATING HEALTHY SWELL FOR JUNE AIMED AT AREA WATERS. GLOBAL MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SIZE AND TIMING OF SWELL MOVING THROUGH WATERS...WITH LEADING EDGE OF SWELL ALREADY CROSSING 30N ATTM...TO REACH 25N AND NE FL COASTAL WATERS MID AFTERNOON...ALL OF BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT AND N COASTS OF CARIB ISLANDS TUE MORNING. 8 FT SEAS EXPECTED TO REACH AS FAR SW AND 26N AND EXTREME NW BAHAMAS 00Z TUE. SURFS UP! $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.