000 AGXX40 KNHC 011814 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 214 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND FAVORED ECMWF MORE IN LATER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE LOW DUE TO LARGE DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST GUIDANCE. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE OVER THE SW GULF...2-4 FT RANGE IN THE NW GULF...4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...AND 1-3 FT OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF THE FORMATION OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SW GULF WATERS BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...AS WITH THE PREVIOUS RUNS...THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES BEYOND THAT POINT WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONGEST WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW...BUT THE LATEST RUN IS MUCH WEAKER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS AND HAS BROUGHT IN MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET. THE GFS HAS ALSO BACKED OFF THE NNE TRACK OF THE LOW AND MEANDERS THE LOW OVER THE SW GULF WATERS WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET CONTINUE TO TRACK THE LOW WESTWARD INTO MEXICO. WILL CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WEAK LOW OVER THE SW GULF WATERS WITH A COMPROMISE IN STRENGTH BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS NE OF THE AREA. TWO LOW LATITUDE TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...5-6 FT IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...4-6 FT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...5-7 FT OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND 7-8 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE SURFACE RIDGE NE OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT EASTWARD AS A SECOND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS AND BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 10 FT. HIGH UNCERTAINTY MENTIONED ABOVE WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF ANTICIPATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST FOR THE NW WATERS LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND A RETREATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ALONG 24/25N TO AROUND 68W AS A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS N OF THE FRONT AND E OF 72W WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS N OF THE FRONT AND W OF 72W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE RIDGE WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE N OF THE FRONT...4-5 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING E OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ENABLE THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE IT STALLS AND DISSIPATES NEAR 25N BY MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. NORTHERLY SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING...PEAKING NEAR 9 FT EARLY MON. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS...REACHING THE NW BAHAMAS AND FL COAST BY LATE MON AFTERNOON AND THE N COAST OF THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS TUE MORNING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.