000 AGXX40 KNHC 311810 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND 2-5 FT OVER THE EASTERN GULF. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE BROAD TROUGHING PREVAILING OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING IN THE SW GULF WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE UKMET DOES NOT DEPICT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW ONCE IT FORMS...WHICH BRINGS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE LATE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTING WESTWARD INTO MEXICO WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND SHIFTS IT NNE. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY BLENDING THE GFS-ECMWF AND DEPICTING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SW GULF WATERS BUT KEEPING IT WEAKER THAN THE GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND A RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS N OF THE AREA WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY..AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL RETREAT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK N OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DISCUSSED IN THE SW N ATLC SECTION. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST WATERS WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES EXPANDING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 10 FT BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WHILE A RETREATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ALONG 26N. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY..AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE OVER THE WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE RETREATING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ENABLING THE COLD FRONT TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD BEFORE IT STALLS AND DISSIPATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE FORECAST WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. A NORTHERLY SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS SUNDAY WITH COMBINED SEAS PEAKING NEAR 9 FT OVER THE FAR NE WATERS ON MONDAY. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING OVER THE WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MIDWEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.