000 AGXX40 KNHC 310803 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 403 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND DEEP LAYERED NEGATIVE TILT CUT OFF LOW CENTERED OVER ARKLATEX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT S...WITH TROUGH AXIS LIFTING N INTO MS COAST AND NEW S/W DROPPING INTO SW QUAD AND ACROSS NW GULF. LITTLE EVIDENCE OF SFC TROF LINGERING ACROSS N GULF...ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE ZONE EXISTS ALONG AND E OF 90W WHERE SE WINDS 15 TO LOCALLY 20 KT E OF 90W PREVAIL AND LIGHT SSE WINDS 5-10 KT PREVAIL W OF 90W. RECENT ASCAT PASS COVERED W OF 92W AND SHOWED VERY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS W AND SW PORTIONS...AND A WEAK HINT AT LLVL TROFFING STILL ALONG 92-93W...WHILE STLT IMAGERY SHOWS EVENING YUCATAN TROF SHIFTING WNW INTO S CENTRAL PORTIONS AND ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THIS VERY WEAK TROF. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH LATE TUE THAT WEAK TROF WILL PERSIST ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE AND GRADUALLY ROTATE NW TO SE ACROSS SW PORTIONS WITH BROAD SFC LOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE. HIGH PRES SINKING SE AND OFF THE MID ATLC COAST SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON WILL TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT ACROSS E AND NE PORTIONS AND YIELD 15 TO LOCALLY 20 KT E TO SE WINDS. BY WED MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH GFS ADAMANT ON SHIFTING SFC LOW OFF TO NNE...WITH SMALL VORTEX DEVELOPING IN PERIPHERY OF E SEMICIRCLE AND LIFTING NWD OUT OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WHILE ECMWF SHIFTS LOW GRADUALLY WWD AND INTO MEXICO. ENSEMBLE MEANS NOT TOO DISSIMILAR WED INTO NEXT WEEKEND BUT WITH GEFS KEEPING LOW ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH SAT. HAVE TRIED TO BLEND GFS-ECMWF 50-50 BEYOND TUE...AND MAKE WAVE HEIGHTS MATCH TO SOME DEGREE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS THROUGH TUE THEN GFS-ECMWF BLEND ATLC RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS E ATLC WITH WEAK EXTENSION ALONG 26-27N INTO W ATLC TO NEAR 70W...AND PRODUCING MODEST PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIB BASIN THIS MORNING. RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES SUGGEST 20 KT TRADES S OF 13.5N OFF OF COLOMBIA...WHILE GFS FORECASTING NOCTURNAL MAX EMBEDDED IN THIS AREA AT 25 KT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HIGH PRES SINKING SLOWLY SE OFF MID ATLC COAST SUN EVENING THROUGH MON WILL TIGHTEN GRADIENT ACROSS BASIN AND EXPAND FRESH TO STRONG TRADES NWD TO NEAR 17N ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS AND LIGHT UP GULF OF HONDURAS AND YUCATAN CHANNEL AT 20-25 KT. HIGH WILL SINK S TO 30N BY WED AND MAINTAIN THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES. ENHANCING THIS WILL BE TWO TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE THROUGH SRN CORRIDOR OF BASIN NEXT FEW DAYS. SECOND WAVE NOW ALONG 52W WILL MOVE THROUGH S PORTIONS OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH 20 TO LOCALLY 20 KT TRADES AND SEAS TO 8 AND POSSIBLY 9 FT BEHIND WAVE THROUGH SUN EVENING. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND STRONG AND BROAD ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING W-SW FROM STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 38N27W CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION WITH WEAK EXTENSION OF RIDGE ACROSS AREA WATERS ALONG 26-27N. WEAK FRONT SINKING SLOWLY S INTO N PORTIONS ATTM AND REACH TO 25N BY 72 HRS BEFORE WASHING OUT. ASSOCIATED LOW PRES TO DEVELOP N OF BERMUDA AND COMBINE WITH HIGH SHIFTING OFF MID ATLC COAST TO KICK UP RESPECTABLE NLY SWELL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING SEAS 7-9 FT N OF 25-26N BY TUE...WHICH WILL IMPACT ALL WATERS EXCEPT LEE OF BAHAMAS BY TUE-WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.