000 AGXX40 KNHC 300816 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 416 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND DEEP LAYERED CUT OFF LOW OVER ARKANSAS...WITH BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 28N87W CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE PORTIONS OF THE GULF THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY ATTM SUGGESTS 2 OR 3 SEPARATE LLVL CONVERGENCE LINES OR TROFS SPIRALING INTO PARENT LOW...WITH MAJORITY OF DEEPER CONVECTION OCCURRING E OF 90W. RECENT ASCAT PASSES INDICATED SSE WINDS 15-20 KT BOTH AS INFLOW INTO CONVECTION AND CONTINUING INTO SE LA COAST. RECENT OBS ACROSS THIS AREA STILL 15-20 KT E OF 91W WITH BUOY 42360 JUST UNDER 6 FT...AND A PEAK OF 6-7 FT LIKELY OCCURRING JUST TO THE NE OF THIS BUOY. LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ELSEWHERE WITH SEAS 2-4 FT AND LESS. MODELS SHOW UPPER LOW WEAKENING OVER NEXT FEW DAYS AND SINKING S TO LA COAST BY SUN...WITH DEEP LAYERED TROFFING EXTENDING TO THE S TO NEAR 20N...THAT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY CARVE SFC TROFFING AS WEAK PRES PATTERN AND WIND FLOW PREVAIL WELL. SFC TROUGH INITIALLY DEVELOPS N TO S ALONG 92-93W SAT THROUGH SUN. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE MEANS THEN SHOW TROF PERSISTING NW TO SE ALIGNED ACROSS THE SW GULF...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO ECMWF...AND HAVE BLENDED GFS-ECMWF 50-50 DURING THIS TIME. GFS PICKING UP ON LOCAL EFFECT OF LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING YUCATAN CONVECTIVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WIND MAX...AND LIKELY OVERDOING WINDS TO E OF THE MEAN TROUGH...AND MY BLEND HAS WASHED THIS OUT TO SOME DEGREE. IN THE LONGER RANGE...MODELS DEVELOPING SFC LOW ACROSS SRN GULF NEXT WEEK...WITH DIFFERING SOLUTIONS BY GLOBAL MODELS. ATTM AM NOT CONFIDENT IN GFS SOLUTION DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS CENTRAL GULF AND PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF LOW CAUGHT IN BAY OF CAMPECHE...OR THE RAT HOLE...FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO NNE NEXT WEEKEND. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS ATLC RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS E ATLC WITH WEAK EXTENSION ALONG 26-27N INTO W ATLC...AND PRODUCING VERY MODEST PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIB BASIN THIS MORNING. RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOWED 20-25 KT TRADES S OF 13.5N OFF OF COLOMBIA...AND BROAD AREA ACROSS MOST OF GULF OF HONDURAS. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES ACROSS TROPICAL ATLC ATTM MOVE ACROSS S PORTIONS OF BASIN TO ENHANCE WINDS SLIGHTLY...LEADING TO MINOR INCREASE IN SEAS S PORTIONS. TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 54W EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS NEXT 24-30 HOURS WITH 20-25 KT WINDS S OF 12N BEHIND WAVE AND SEAS 8-9 FT...AND REACH 70W BY 00Z MON. UPPER RIDGE ACROSS TROPICAL ATLC BETWEEN 40W AND 60W SUPPRESSING CNVTN N OF 10N ATTM...BUT THIS WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SE CARIB AND FLARE UP CONVECTIVELY AS IT MOVES WWD. A SECOND WAVE BEHIND IT ALONG 44W ATTM EXPECTED TO BE SQUASHED BY UPPER RIDGE AND SAL BEHIND IT BEGINNING TO CATCH UP TO WAVE. HOWEVER GFS SUGGESTS THIS WAVE WILL MAKE A COMEBACK AS IT APPROACHES 60W AND FLARE UP S OF 12N AS IT MOVES ACROSS WINDWARDS AND INTO SE CARIB SUN. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND STRONG AND BROAD ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING W-SW FROM STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 35N28W CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION WITH WEAK EXTENSION OF RIDGE ACROSS AREA WATERS ALONG 26-27N. WEAK FRONT JUST N OF AREA TO SINK SE AND STALL ALONG ABOUT 30N TONIGHT THEN BE REINFORCED BY SECOND BOUNDARY SUN THAT WILL BRIEFLY STALL ALONG 29-30N THEN PUSH S TO ALONG 25-26N MON BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE. ASSOCIATED LOW PRES TO DEVELOP N OF BERMUDA AND KICK UP RESPECTABLE NLY SWELL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING SEAS 6-9 FT N OF 25-26N BY TUE...WHICH WILL IMPACT ALL WATERS EXCEPT LEE OF BAHAMAS BY TUE-WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.