000 AGXX40 KNHC 291742 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 142 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER ARKANSAS CONTINUES TO INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION...LIGHT TO MODERATE SE TO S FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE GULF BETWEEN WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND HIGH PRES REACHING FROM THE WESTERN ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND MAINTAIN A WEAK PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK LOW PRES OVER THE SW GULF FRI THEN REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY AND WEAKENING GRADUALLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ALSO DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF SLIGHTLY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE EXPECTED TO CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COMBINATION OF RIDGING NORTH OF THE REGION AND A SERIES OF WEAK TROPICAL WAVES MIGRATING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA SOUTH OF CARIBBEAN BASIN ARE MAINTAINING FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE GFS IS FALLING MORE IN LINE WITH THE OTHER MAINSTREAM SOLUTIONS AND IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA THIS WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED AS A RESULT. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG BROAD ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING W-SW FROM STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 35N25W WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH SAT WITH VERY LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICS AND SUBTROPICS EXPECTED. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH TRADES S OF RIDGE AXIS IN SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE COAST NORTH OF VIRGINIA LATE THIS WEEK...AND INTERACTING WITH WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA TO HELP FORM A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR BERMUDA BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW THAN THE OTHER MODEL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE IMPACT SOUTH OF 30N IS MUTED SHOWING RIDGE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING SE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD TO AROUND 25N BY SUNDAY BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED FROM THE DEEPENING LOW PRES N OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF 30N EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONSENSUS OF AMONG THE WAVE MODELS SHOW SWELL OF 6 TO 9 FT ENVELOPING THE AREA N OF 25N E OF 77W WITH THE HIGHEST SWELL CLOSER TO BERMUDA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.