000
AGXX40 KNHC 280726
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
325 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ALONG 30N ACROSS 
THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD LATER TODAY AS WEAK 
LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER EAST TEXAS. A PERSISTENT TROUGH WILL 
REMAIN OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED BASED 
ON GLOBAL MODELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN ASCAT PASS AT 0230 UTC SHOWED 25 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF 
VENEZUELA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF 
THE AREA THROUGH FRI AS ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE 
SUBTROPICS. HIGH PRES E OF BERMUDA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS AND MERGE WITH BROAD E ATLC RIDGE ROUGHLY ALONG 29N. 
GFS SHOWING GULF OF HONDURAS PULSING TO 20-25 KT EACH NIGHT AS 
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS W ATLC. LATEST GFS FORECAST HAS BACKED OFF 
FROM PREVIOUS DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
MOVING NW TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND MUCH CLOSER IN LINE 
WITH ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS. NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE 
ALONG 63W WILL SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
TODAY THROUGH THU AND INTO W CARIBBEAN FRI.

..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG BROAD ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING W-SW FROM STATIONARY HIGH 
PRESSURE NEAR 35N30W WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH SAT WITH 
VERY LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE 
TROPICS AND SUBTROPICS EXPECTED. FRESH TRADES EXPECTED S OF THE 
RIDGE AXIS IN SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI. THERE 
IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING DEVELOPING LOW 
PRES MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT...WHICH WILL THEN SHIFT 
THE RIDGE SOUTHWARD SUN AS A TRAILING FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF 30N.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.