000 AGXX40 KNHC 271814 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 214 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ALONG 30N ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WED AS WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER EAST TEXAS. A TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE FAR SW GULF IN THE MEANTIME. THERE REMAINS LITTLE CHANGE IN GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE LOW OVER EAST TEXAS FILLS WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF DEEPENS SLIGHTLY...FORMING A WEAK LOW PRES BY FRI. THIS WEAKENS SAT AND SUN POSING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH OFFICIAL AND ECMWF. HIGH CONFIDENCE. JUDGING BY BUOY DATA OVER THE CARIBBEAN...THE GFS IS INITIALIZING SLIGHTLY TO HIGH WITH THE EXTENT OF WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AN EARLY ASCAT SATELLITE PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF STRONG TRADES TO 30 KT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ENHANCED IN PART BY A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING FROM WESTERN VENEZUELA INTO EASTERN COLOMBIA. HOWEVER THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS WAS LIMITED TO GENERALLY SOUTH OF 13N WITH ONLY 15 TO 20 KT REGISTERED N OF 13N. THIS IN TURN ALLOWED MWW3 WAVE HEIGHTS TO BE A FOOT OR TWO TOO HIGH COMPARED WITH BUOY HEIGHTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS...EXCEPT MAINTAINING STRONGER GFS VALUES FOR SENSITIVE AREAS SUCH AS THE COAST OF NE COLOMBIA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. LOOKING AHEAD EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE OPERATIONAL GFS DIVERGES FROM OTHER MODELS INCLUDING TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS ENSEMBLE INDICATING LOW PRES FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND SHIFTING NW TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH WINDS REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE. OFFICIAL FORECAST TEMPERS THE GFS SOLUTION WITH A MORE CONSERVATIVE BLEND WITH THE ECMWF...MAINTAINING AN OPEN TROUGH WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS INTO THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN. ASCAT SATELLITE DATA ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE WAVE SHOWS 20 TO MAYBE 25 KT TRADES. THIS SUPPORTS MWW3 INITIALIZATIONSOF SEAS TO 9 FT IN THE WATERS BETWEEN BARBADOS AND GUYANA. THE WAVE WILL DRIFT ACROSS VENEZUELA ENHANCING TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ALONG AND TO THE NE OF THE BAHAMAS...DUE MAINLY TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG THE REMNANTS OF A DYING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG ROUGHLY 25.5N. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG GENERALLY 30N THROUGH NE FLORIDA. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES PERSIST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WITH OCCASIONALLY FRESH TRADES S OF 22N. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING LOW PRES EMERGING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY. THE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD SUNDAY AHEAD OF WITH A TRAILING FRONT SAGGING SOUTH OF 30N. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.