000
AGXX40 KNHC 270635
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
235 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL PERSIST FROM ATLC ACROSS SE U.S. AND THE 
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH FRI. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY S TO 
ALONG 28N TO 29N ACROSS EASTERN GULF WED THROUGH FRI. LIGHT TO 
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE 
AREA...WITH EVENING TROUGHING ACROSS NW YUCATAN ENHANCING WINDS 
AND SEAS ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTION EACH EVENING. TROUGH WILL THEN 
SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS SW PORTION AND DISSIPATE LATE EACH NIGHT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0250 UTC SHOWED SMALL AREA OF 30 KT 
WINDS CENTERED NEAR 12.5N 73.5E NEAR COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS IS 
VERY CLOSE TO GFS GUIDANCE SO LENDS FURTHER CREDIBILITY TO USING 
GFS BLEND AND WW3 MODEL FOR WINDS AND SEAS IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRI 
AS ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SUBTROPICS. HIGH PRES 
NEAR BERMUDA WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY EASTWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND 
THEN MERGE WITH BROAD E ATLC RIDGE WED...WITH RIDGE REALIGNING 
ACROSS W ATLC ALONG 28N TO 29N. GFS SHOWING GULF OF HONDURAS 
PULSING TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN LATE IN WEEK AS RIDGE 
BUILDS BACK ACROSS W ATLC. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W WILL CONTINUE W AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO 
E END OF EPAC MONSOON CIRCULATION. MINIMAL IMPACT EXPECTED WITH 
THIS WAVE. SECOND LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE ALONG 54W WILL MOVE INTO SE 
CARIB TUE MORNING...THEN CENTRAL CARIB THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH 
GFS SHOWING SFC LOW DEVELOPING FROM WAVE IN W CARIB THIS WEEKEND.

..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ANIMATED SAT IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE WEAK COLD FRONT 
ALONG 26N HAS BECOME A DIFFUSE CONVERGENCE ZONE OR SHEAR LINE.  
STRONG BROAD ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING W-SW FROM STATIONARY HIGH 
PRESSURE NEAR 35N30W WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH SAT WITH 
VERY LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE 
TROPICS AND SUBTROPICS EXPECTED. FRESH TRADES EXPECTED S OF THE 
RIDGE AXIS IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.