000 AGXX40 KNHC 261839 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 239 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND. DEEP LAYERED LOW INCHING SLOWLY EWD OUT OF DESERT SW OF U.S. AND INTO SRN PLAINS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO KICK OFF ACTIVE CONVECTION TO ITS E...AND NOW MOVING INTO COASTAL COUNTIES OF TEXAS...WILL SHIFT E INTO THE NW WATERS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT THEN SHIFT E ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NW GULF WATERS THROUGH TUE. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO MOVE SLOWLY ESE ACROSS TEXAS TUE THROUGH EARLY THU BEFORE WEAKENING ACROSS COASTAL TEXAS LATE THU INTO WEEKEND. ECMWF SLIGHTLY SE OF GFS WITH THIS FEATURE AND SHOWS MORE LINGERING TROFFING ACROSS TEXAS BEYOND THU THAN GFS. USED A 60-40 BLEND OF GFS-ECMWF FOR THIS BEYOND THU. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL PERSIST FROM ATLC WWD INTO SE U.S. AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH FRI. AS CURRENT HIGH OFF COAST OF CAROLINAS SHIFTS EWD AND BECOMES ABSORBED IN E ATLC RIDGE TUE-WED...RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 28-29N ACROSS THE SW N ATLC THU FRI. LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH EVENING TROFFING ACROSS NW YUCATAN ENHANCING WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS EACH EVENING THEN SHIFT WWD ACROSS SW PORTIONS AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRI AS ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SUBTROPICS. 1026 MB HIGH OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD NEXT FEW DAYS AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED INTO E ATLC RIDGE TUE- WED...WITH RIDGE THEN REALIGNING ACROSS W ATLC TO ALONG 28-29N. AS HIGH SHIFTS EWD AND DUE N OF BASIN TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT... NOCTURNAL WIND MAX OFF COLOMBIA WILL INCREASE TO 30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11-12 FT THERE BY MORNING. GFS ALSO SHOWING GULF OF HONDURAS PULSING 20-25 KT TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN LATE IN WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS W ATLC. TWO TROPICAL WAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONE CURRENTLY IN CARIB ALONG ABOUT 70W WILL CONTINUE W AND BECOME ABSORBED IN E END OF DEVELOPING EPAC MONSOONAL CIRCULATION. MODEST IMPACTS IN WINDS AND SEAS WITH THIS WAVE...AND IS MOVING INTO SUBSIDENCE ON BACK SIDE OF CARIB UPPER TROUGH. SECOND WAVE ALONG ABOUT 54W ATTM WILL MOVE INTO SE CARIB BY TUE MORNING...ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...INTO SW CARIB THU...WITH GFS THEN SHOWING WAVE ACCUMULATION ON E END OF MONSOONAL GYRE ACROSS EPAC AND CENTRAL AMERICA CREATING A SFC LOW IN W CARIB OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ECMWF DEVELOPS BROAD SFC LOW DURING THIS TIME ACROSS EPAC NEAR COASTS AND SHIFTS GRADUALLY WNW. ENSEMBLE MEANS RESEMBLE ECMWF SOLUTION. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N66W TO FAR NW BAHAMAS THEN BACKDOOR FASHION ACROSS CENTRAL FL WILL DRIFT S AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND BECOME DIFFUSE ALONG ABOUT 27N TUE. STRONG ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING W-SW FROM STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 35N30W WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH FRI WITH VERY LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICS AND SUBTROPICS EXPECTED. FRESH TRADES THROUGH THE SRN BAHAMAS WILL PERSIST 15-20 KT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.