000
AGXX40 KNHC 231715
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
115 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL. LATEST NWPS
AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING OVER THE NE TO N CENTRAL GULF
AND SE RETURN FLOW DOMINATING THE W GULF. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...SO THE GFS SEEMS AS GOOD A SOLUTION AS ANY. THE NWPS
WAS BLENDED INTO THE WAVE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR BATHYMETRIC
INFLUENCES.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR
WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRES TO THE N
REMAINS COMPROMISED BY A SERIES OF TROUGHS PASSING N OF THE RIDGE
AXIS AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH STAYS FIXED OVER THE EASTERN ATLC.
WITH LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE HANDLING OF THIS RIDGING BY THE
MODELS...THE GFS SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHOICE AS ITS STRONGER
SOLUTION ALONG THE COAST OF NE COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA GENERALLY
COMPARES BETTER TO OBSERVATIONS. THE OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS SHOWED
WINDS TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF NE COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA.
NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS WERE THIS STRONG. ABIDING BY THE GFS
FORECAST...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG
47W WILL MOVE ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS SOUTH OF 12N SAT AND
EARLY SUN...PASSING W-NW THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUN THROUGH
MON AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON INTO TUE.


..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR
WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON
THEIR HANDLING OF THE RIDGING OVER THE SW N ATLC. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WATERS N OF 27N OVER THE WEEKEND. THEIR
RESPECTIVE WAVE MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT. BIG BUBBLE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SPELLS NO TROUBLE INTO NEXT WEEK. THE GFS FORECAST
LOOKS AS GOOD AS ANY FOR UPDATING THE GRIDS.


$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.