000
AGXX40 KNHC 221729
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
129 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL. LATEST NWPS
AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING OVER THE NE TO N CENTRAL GULF
AND SE RETURN FLOW DOMINATING THE W GULF. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...SO THE GFS SEEMS AS GOOD A SOLUTION AS ANY. NWPS
RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT LOWER THAN THE MWW3 IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH
RETURN FLOW IN THE W GULF LATE IN THE PERIOD. BLENDED WITH THE
NWPS AND MWW3 TO BEEF UP SEAS HERE IN THE LONG FETCH AREA.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR
WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH THE USUAL EXCEPTION ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRES
TO THE N REMAINS COMPROMISED BY A SERIES OF TROUGHS PASSING N OF
THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH STAYS FIXED OVER THE
EASTERN ATLC. WITH LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE HANDLING OF THIS
RIDGING BY THE MODELS...THE GFS SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHOICE AS ITS
STRONGER SOLUTION ALONG THE COAST OF NE COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA
GENERALLY COMPARES BETTER TO OBSERVATIONS. ABIDING BY THE GFS
FORECAST...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A WEAK TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY WELL TO THE EAST WILL MOVE ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS
SOUTH OF 12N SAT...PASSING W-NW INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE.


..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST THROUGH FRI WITH ECMWF ADDED SAT AND SUN. LATEST MWW3
BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS
THROUGH FRI WITH EC WAVE ADDED SAT AND SUN. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE 1428 UTC ASCAT-A PASS SHOWED 25 KT WINDS BETWEEN 30N-31N W OF
76W. THIS IS STRONGER THAN ANY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MANUALLY
BEEFED UP THE WINDS AND CORRESPONDING WAVES HERE WITH BUOY 41002
JUST N OF THE AREA SHOWING 8 FT SEAS AT 1600 UTC. 

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON
THEIR HANDLING OF THE RIDGING OVER THE SW N ATLC. BY THE
WEEKEND...THE ECMWF CARRIES A SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND MORE SLOWER LOW
PRES SYSTEM THAN THE GFS N OF THE AREA THAT WILL SEND NORTHERLY
SWELL INTO NE WATERS BY SUN...BUT THEIR RESPECTIVE WAVE MODELS NOW
SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE RUNS THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
STILL...A COMPROMISE OF THEIR SOLUTIONS WAS USED TO ACCOUNT FOR
SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.