000 AGXX40 KNHC 220723 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 323 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL. LATEST NWPS AND MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS EAST TO WEST ALONG ROUGHLY 29N...WITH A 1022 MB HIGH PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR 30N85W. STRONG EASTERLY FLOW HAD PERSISTED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENED. THUS LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST OVERALL. THE EXCEPTION IS NOTED IN A 03 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS SHOWING THE USUAL LATE EVENING FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW OFF THE NW TIP OF YUCATAN PENINSULA. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOWING A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EMERGING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAKENING AND SPLITTING THE RIDGE AND SHIFTING THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS/MWW3 ARE HANDLING THIS WELL. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING AS NOTED IN A 02 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS. THE ASCAT DATA ALSO SHOW A SMALL AREA OF LINGERING 20 TO 25 KT GAP WIND FLOW ALONG THE S CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA THAT WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRES TO THE N REMAINS COMPROMISED BY A SERIES OF TROUGHS PASSING N OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH STAYS FIXED OVER THE EASTERN ATLC. WITH LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE HANDLING OF THIS RIDGING BY THE MODELS...THE GFS SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHOICE AS ITS STRONGER SOLUTION ALONG THE COAST OF NE COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA GENERALLY COMPARES BETTER TO OBSERVATIONS. THE FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO MATCH ECWAVE AND UKWAVE GUIDANCE FOR SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN HOWEVER WHICH SEEM MORE SENSITIVE TO THE QUICK OVERNIGHT TRADE WIND PULSES THAN THE MWW3. ABIDING BY THE GFS FORECAST...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A WEAK TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY WELL TO THE EAST WILL MOVE ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS SOUTH OF 12N SAT INTO SUN...PASSING INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG ROUGHLY 29N WILL WEAKEN THROUGH LATE TODAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TO 25N BY EARLY SAT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SOUTH OF 30N LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS ARE FORECAST N OF 30N AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW WILL PERSIST UNDER THE RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL ERODE ALTOGETHER W OF 65W BY SUNDAY AS THE FRONT DRIFTS S TO 27N BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE. MODEL-WISE...THE 00 UTC ECMWF AND UKMET ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS THAN BEFORE WITH LITTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM IN THE POSITION OR TIMING OF EXPECT FEATURES AND LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN WAVE OUTPUT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.