000 AGXX40 KNHC 210800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. WIND SPEED AND SEA HEIGHT FORECAST FOR TODAY MANUALLY ADJUSTED UPWARD IN STRAITS OF FLORIDA. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...ANCHORING A EAST TO WEST ORIENTED RIDGE REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO TEXAS. SOUTH OF RIDGE...A 03 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA OFF THE NW COAST OF CUBA. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH LATE WEEK SHOWING THE HIGH PRES SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH THU AS A TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. WINDS ACROSS THE SE GULF WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS A RESULT THROUGH THU...ALTHOUGH A WEAK TROUGH WILL FORM EACH EVENING OVER THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ENHANCED NE FLOW OFF THE COAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND THE FAR NE GULF...STALLING ALONG 27N BY LATE SATURDAY AND BECOMING DIFFUSE SUNDAY. MEANWHILE SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW GULF WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST AND MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE NOTED N OF 20N IN A 0230 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE PASS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO RAKE THE NW AND N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND GREATER ANTILLES...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM JET ALOFT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OFF THE COASTS OF NW VENEZUELA AND NE COLOMBIA. SEAS AREA LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 8 FT IN THIS AREA...BUT BUOY DATA ELSEWHERE SUGGEST 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. FARTHER EAST...FRESH TRADE WINDS PERSIST BETWEEN 55W AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAINTAINING COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT...ALTHOUGH THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THU AS WINDS DIMINISH. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A WEAK TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY WELL TO THE EAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF 12N THROUGH SATURDAY. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT TO MODERATE E FLOW PERSISTS SOUTH OF A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE NE FLORIDA COAST. THE RIDGE IS BUILDING BEHIND A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXITING TO THE EAST. FRESH E TRADES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST SOUTH OF 22N. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO 25N THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH OF 30N BY LATE FRI...BEFORE STALLING NEAR 27N SAT AND BECOMING DIFFUSE SUN. THIS WILL DELIVER LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW AND MODEST SEAS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.