000 AGXX40 KNHC 201758 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 158 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECWMF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. CMAN COASTAL STATION SMKF1 IN THE FLORIDA KEYS CONTINUES TO SHOW 48M WINDS NEAR 25 KT...INDICATING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TODAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS BUILDING SOUTHWARD AND SETTLING AS A BROAD RIDGE ALONG 30N WEDNESDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY STARTING TONIGHT. THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING ALONG 75W BY SATURDAY...WITH A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDING ALONG 95W OVER THE WESTERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT DRIFTING THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA THURSDAY AND SPLITTING THE RIDGE AXIS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL LATE IN THE WEEK ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF. FRESH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT OFF THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN COAST. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST AND MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN NORTH OF 20N...UNDER AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM JET ALOFT. FRESH EASTERLIES PERSIST IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...KEEPING SEAS NEAR 8 FT...AS SEEN IN THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE ALTIMETER PASS. SHIP CCES REPORTED ENE FRESH BREEZE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 12Z WITH STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS LIKELY A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE. BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM ELSEWHERE AROUND THE BASIN INDICATED ONLY MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH WINDS. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...BUT LIKELY AS HIGH AS 8 FT OFF COLOMBIA. LONG PERIOD NORTHEASTERN SWELL CONTINUES TO PENETRATE ATLANTIC PASSAGES ...ALTHOUGH WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE DECAYED BELOW 7 FT OVERALL. LITTLE CHANGE IN MODEL DEPICTIONS SHOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORMING NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG 30N BY WED...SUPPORTING FRESH EASTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN NORTH OF 20N...AND FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG BREEZE TRADEWINDS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO INCREASE THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. FARTHER EAST...FRESH TRADES PERSIST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND W OF 55W...WITH SEAS STAYING AROUND 6 TO 7 FT IN THE 20 KT FLOW AND ENHANCED BY LINGERING NE SWELL. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z AND 00Z ECWMF GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ON THE 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N61W TO 26N71W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 27N66W TO 21N71W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACTIVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO WHERE JET ENERGY ALOFT MEETS THE BASE OF A BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH ALONG 75W N OF 23N. COASTAL STATIONS AND BUOYS INDICATE AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW NORTHWEST OF THE DYING FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS PERSISTENT WIND FLOW AGAINST THE GULF STREAM CURRENT IS LIKELY MAINTAINING SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE MAIN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY THROUGH INTO THIS WEEKEND REMAINS THE SAME WITH A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING ALONG 30N WEDNESDAY...THEN DRIFTING SOUTH TO 27N THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD TO 30N BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADES S OF 22N WED DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THROUGH LATE WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LANDSEA/CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.