000 AGXX40 KNHC 200800 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. CMAN COASTAL STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS CONTINUE TO SHOW 30M WINDS NEAR 25 KT...INDICATING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS MORNING...SOUTH OF HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE OUTER BANKS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE HIGH PRES OVER THE CAROLINAS BUILDS SOUTHWARD AND SETTLING AS A BROAD RIDGE ALONG 30N WED ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY STARTING TONIGHT. THE GFS INITIALIZED BEST SHOWING THE STRONGER FLOW THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF...BUT STILL A LITTLE LESS THAN ESTIMATED FLOW IF 30M WINDS ARE MIXING TO THE SURFACE. THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING ALONG 75W BY SATURDAY...WITH A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDING ALONG 95W OVER THE WESTERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLC STATES LATE WED INTO THU...WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT DRIFTING THROUGH N FLORIDA THU AND SPLITTING THE RIDGE AXIS WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE E FLOW WILL PREVAIL LATE IN THE WEEK ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF. FRESH NE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT OFF THE NW YUCATAN COAST. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST AND MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N...UNDER AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM JET ALOFT. FRESH EASTERLIES PERSIST IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...KEEPING SEAS NEAR 8 FT. AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT DATA FROM ELSEWHERE AROUND THE BASIN INDICATED ONLY MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH WINDS. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT IN THE NW GULF SOUTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...BUT LIKELY AS HIGH AS 8 TO 9 FT OFF COLOMBIA. LONG PERIOD NE SWELL CONTINUES TO PENETRATE ATLC PASSAGES...ALTHOUGH WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE DECAYED BELOW 7 FT OVERALL. LITTLE CHANGE IN MODEL DEPICTIONS SHOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORMING N OF THE AREA ALONG 30N BY WED...SUPPORTING FRESH EASTERLIES ACROSS THE NW GULF N OF 20N...AND FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADES IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO INCREASE THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY THU AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. FARTHER EAST...FRESH TRADES PERSIST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND W OF 55W...WITH SEAS STAYING AROUND 8 FT IN THE 20 KT FLOW AND ENHANCED BY LINGERING NE SWELL. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ON THE 06 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS A COLD FRONT REACHES FROM 31N61W TO 28N66W WHERE IT BECOMES A DYING STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACTIVE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO WHERE JET ENERGY ALOFT MEETS THE BASE OF A BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH ALONG 75W N OF 25N. 0244 UTC ASCAT SATELLITE DATA SHOW AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E FLOW NW OF THE DYING FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND GULF STREAM...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS PERSISTENT FLOW AGAINST THE CURRENT IS MAINTAINING SEAS TO 9 FT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AS REPORTED BY VESSEL H3GR ABOUT 20 NM SOUTH OF MARATHON IN THE MIDDLE KEYS AT 06 UTC. A MESOSCALE TROUGH IS NOTED IN ASCAT SATELLITE AND SHIP/BUOY OBSERVATIONS ORIENTED E-W ALONG ROUGH 29N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W...INITIATED BY A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT ROUDING THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH. THE GFS HAD BEEN ADVERTIZING THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH STRONG NE FLOW...BUT THAT SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN OVERDONE JUDGING BY SURROUNDING DATA. AT ANY RATE THE LATEST GFS HAS BACKED OFF. THE MAIN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY THROUGH INTO THIS WEEKEND REMAINS THE SAME WITH A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING ALONG 30N WED...THEN DRIFTING SOUTH TO 27N THROUGH FRI AS A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD TO 30N BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADES S OF 22N WED DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THROUGH LATE WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.