000 AGXX40 KNHC 191903 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FAR SE GULF AND WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUE ADJUSTING SEAS UPWARD ABOUT 1-2 FT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE NE AND CENTRAL GULF FROM A 1023 MB HIGH CENTER LOCATED OVER W VIRGINIA. A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN THE FAR SE GULF CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT THERE...AND OVER THE WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA. RESULTANT SEAS ARE IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE AS REPORTED BY ANOTHER SHIP "C6CLG2" TODAY NEAR 25N84W. ELSEWHERE ...LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT NW OF THE RIDGE. SE OF THE RIDGE...WINDS ARE E-SE AT 10-15 KT...EXCEPT FOR LIGHTER E-SE WINDS OF 5-10 KT IN THE FAR NE PART. THE BUOYS ALONG WITH RECENTLY RECEIVED ALTIMETER DATA SHOW SEAS TO BE IN THE RANGES OF 5-8 FT ELSEWHERE S OF 25N E OF 89W...AND 4-5 FT ELSEWHERE E OF 89W EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT N OF 28N. SEAS W OF 89W ARE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE... EXCEPT FOR 2-3 FT SEAS IN THE NW PART. OVERALL..LITTLE THIS FORECAST WILL VARY VERY LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE CURRENT HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL BE REPLACED BY STRONGER HIGH PRES THAT WILL SURGE S OVER THE REGION THROUGH WED BEFORE WEAKENING THU SAT NIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE SE GULF WILL SLACKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE NE 20-25 KT WINDS DESCRIBE ABOVE TO DIMINISH TO KT TUE NIGHT AND WED. THE 8-10 FT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL LATE MON NIGHT. A TIGHT PRES GRADEINT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEW AREA OF STRONGER HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO INDUCE NE-E 20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE FAR S CENTRAL AND SE PORTION TUE THROUGH MUCH OF WED...SPREADING WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF ZONE 25. SEAS WITHIN THIS AREA OF WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 7 OR 8 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF...AND E-SE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH SAT NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST AND MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAKENING SHEAR LINE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA SW TO NEAR 20N85W. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TO ITS N IS ALLOWING FOR NE 20-25 KT TO OCCUR OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WATERS AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE. THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 15-20 KT WITH SEAS LOWERING TO AROUND 6 FT. A COUPLE OF SHIPS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE REPORTING NE 20 KT WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT...LEADING ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE EARLIER NE 20-25 KT WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THERE. HOWEVER... BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC BEGINNING TUE WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT AGAIN IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALLOWING FOR THE NE 20 KT TO INCREASE BACK UP TO 20-25 KT FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 69W AND 75W...AND EXPAND OVER A LARGER AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE PRES GRADIENT FURTHER INTENSIFIES. THE CURRENT SEAS TO 8 FT THERE ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 10 FT BY THE END OF THE WEEK ...BUT COULD POSSIBLY BE SLIGHTER HIGHER. ELSWHERE...LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH RECENT ASCAT DATA ARE SHOWING GENERALLY GENTLE TRADES WITH SEAS IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE ...WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF 5-7 FT ELSEWHERE S OF 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W AND LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT IN THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. NE SWELLS ARE AFFECTING THE TROPICAL N ATL ZONES. LATEST BUOY REPORTS AS WELL AS RECENT ALTIMETER DATA REVEAL SEAS IN THE 5-8 FT ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THESE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER TUE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED AT 18 UTC TO EXTEND ALONG A POSITION FROM 31N66W TO 28N68W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N72W AND A SHEAR LINE TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND CENTRAL CUBA. ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING DEPICTED GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTS. W OF THE SHEAR LINE NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE NOTED S OF 26N. SEAS TO 9 FT ARE S OF 25N W OF 79W AS RECENTLY REPORTED BY A SHIP "CQIU" AT 25N80W. A VERY ACTIVE JET STREAM BRANCH ROUGHLY ALONG 25N26N MARKS DRIER AIR TO THE N...WITH DEEP MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO ITS S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NW PORTION WILL SWEEP SEWD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WED NIGHT ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN AND SE PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE FRONT TO SLOWLY MOVE E REACHING FROM NEAR 31N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND FROM 31N58W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W BY TUE EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS E OF THE AREA WED. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ALONG 30N BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT SE AND WEAKEN THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A WEAK FRONT TO REACH FROM NEAR 31N78W TO 29N81W BY FRI NIGHT...AND EXTEND IN A NEARLY E TO W FASHION FROM 30N TO 31N SAT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.