000 AGXX40 KNHC 190759 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 359 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF HAS SHIFTED MORE TO THE NORTHEAST...AND IS MERGING WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE STRONG HIGH PRES WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE WIND DIRECTION REMAINS AGAINST THE PREVAILING OCEAN CURRENTS...ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FT IN THESE AREA. ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE NE TO E FLOW PREVAILS...EXCEPT FOR MODERATE SE FLOW ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. SEAS ARE 2 TO 4 FT IN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE FAR SE GULF. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND TUE FORMING A BROAD RIDGE FROM BERMUDA TO TEXAS BY WED. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS TO PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE RIDGE WILL SPLIT THU AND FRI AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...LEAVING WEAK HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF FRI WITH MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW IN PLACE. THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN GLOBAL MODELS CONCERNING POSITION OR TIMING OF THESE FEATURES. OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS SLIGHTLY STRONGER GFS...SHOWING 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE SE GULF AS WELL AS STRONG NE NOCTURNAL FLOW OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST AND MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 15 TO 20 KT EASTERLY WINDS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SHEAR LINE...OCCASIONALLY PULSING TO 25 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO PERSIST ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SEAS ARE LIKELY 6 TO 8 FT IN THE PERSISTENT FLOW. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLIES WITH 2 TO 4 FT PERSIST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADE WINDS...WITH STRONGER WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL PULSE TO 25 KT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. FARTHER EAST...A COMBINATION OF FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW AND NE SWELL WILL ALLOW COMBINED SEAS TO REACH 8 FT OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC WATERS BETWEEN 55W AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME OF THIS LONGER PERIOD SWELL FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS PENETRATING THROUGH THE PASSAGES INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...ALTHOUGH COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 8 FT OVERALL. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N67W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHERE IS TRANSITIONS INTO A SHEAR LINE REACHING TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N80W. ASCAT SATELLITE DATA ALONG WITH CMAN COASTAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS PERSISTING OVER THE GULF STREAM AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA NW OF THE SHEAR LINE. THIS IS ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 7 FT WEST OF THE CAY SAL AREA IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WILL GIVE THE STALLED FRONT NEW IMPETUS N OF 25N STARTING LATE TODAY...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD LEAVING THE SOUTHERN PORTION STALLED AND ELONGATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS THROUGH MID WEEK...AND ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 25N...MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES SOUTH OF 22N. MEANWHILE NE SWELL FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLC WITH SEAS TO 7 FT IS NOTED EAST OF 70W...AND WILL BE SUBSIDING THROUGH TONIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.