000 AGXX40 KNHC 181847 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST ANALYSIS HAS A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE FAR NE GULF AT 30N87W WITH A RIDGE SW TO NEAR 26N96W. A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER TAMPICO. LATEST CMAN COASTAL OBSERVATIONS FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS CONTINUE TO INDICATE 20-25 KT NE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG THE NW COAST OF CUBA TO THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE EFFECT OF THE PERSISTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AGAINST THE FLORIDA AND YUCATAN CURRENTS ARE ENHANCING SEA HEIGHTS WITHIN THE AREA OF THE NE 20-25 KT WINDS ...WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT. EARLIER THIS MORNING A SHIP WITH CALLER ID "WDE4432" REPORTED MAX SEAS OF 10 FT NEAR 24N84W. ELSEWHERE...LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW S WINDS OF 10-15 KT NW OF THE RIDGE. SE OF THE RIDGE...WINDS ARE E-SE AT 10-15 KT...EXCEPT FOR LIGHTER E-SE WINDS OF 5-10 KT IN THE FAR NE PART. THE BUOYS ALONG WITH RECENTL RECEIVED ALTIMETER DATA SHOW SEAS TO BE IN THE RANGES OF 5-8 FT ELSEWHERE S OF 25N E OF 89W...AND 4-5 FT ELSEWHERE E OF 89W EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT N OF 28N. SEAS W OF 89W ARE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE... EXCEPT FOR 2-3 FT SEAS IN THE NW PART. THE 1024 MB HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE SOME TO THE NE THROUGH EARLY MON AND WEAKEN. AT THE SAME TIME STRONGER HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SWD OVER THE REGION. THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE SE GULF WILL SLACKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE NE 20-25 KT WINDS DESCRIBE ABOVE TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT ON MON. THE 8-10 FT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL MON NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE SEAS TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL LINGERING NEAR THE ENTRANCE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE STRONGER HIGH PRES THAT BEGINS TO BUILD S ON MON WILL INDUCE A TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR SE GULF ALLOWING FOR NE-E WINDS THERE TO MOSTLY AT 20 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THESE WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF ZONE 25 BY WED... AND LAST THROUGH LATE THU...EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 7 OR 8 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF...AND E-SE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS IN THE WESTERN GULF SHOULD DIMINISH SOME WED THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS INTO A WEAK HIGH CENTER OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF...HOWEVER MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EVENINGS IN THE EASTERN PART OF ZONE 25. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST AND MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT PRESENTLY ALONG A POSITION FROM W CENTRAL CUBA WSW TO JUST INLAND THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WITH THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN EXISTENCE TO ITS N ALONG WITH A DRIER AIR MASS PRESENT THERE... AND LIGHTER WINDS NOTED TO ITS S THE WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO SOON TRANSITION TO A SHEAR LINE...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH SEAS OF 6-9 FT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO MON AS THE HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE 1414 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED MODERATE TO FRESH E TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH A FRESH NE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT ON MON...THEN MATERIALIZE AGAIN TO THE FRESH RANGE TUE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W AND CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ELSWHERE...LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH RECENT ASCAT DATA ARE SHOWING GENERALLY GENTLE TRADES WITH SEAS IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE ...WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF 5-7 FT ELSEWHERE S OF 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W AND LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT IN THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. NE SWELLS ARE AFFECTING THE TROPICAL N ATL ZONES. LATEST BUOY REPORTS AS WELL AS RECENT ALTIMETER DATA REVEAL SEAS IN THE 4-7 FT IN THE SOUTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES...WITH HIGHER SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THE SWELLS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF ARE FORECAST BY WAVE MODELS GUIDANCE TO BUILD TO 6-8 FT MON NIGHT AND TUE...AND ONLY SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER. THE SWELLS IN THE NORTHERN HALF ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT MON NIGHT AND TO 4-5 FT TUE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED AT 18 UTC TO EXTEND ALONG A POSITION FROM 31N69W TO 28N73W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TO W CENTRAL CUBA. THE 1410 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING DEPICTED AN AREA OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS S OF 27N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND BAHAMAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR PUNCHING EASTWARD OVER THE FRONT N OF 26N. AS A RESULT...EARLIER FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS UNDERGOING A GOOD AMOUNT OF DISSIPATION. ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED S OF 25N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE E OF THE FRONT FROM 23N TO 27N. THE FORECAST IS VERY MUCH OF TRACK TO PREVIOUS ONES. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH TUE...WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUN THROUGH MON...AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD TO OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST TUE THROUGH THU. THE HE HIGH WILL WEAKEN THU IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA. NE SWELLS E AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS WILL LINGER INTO MON NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TUE AND TUE NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.