000 AGXX40 KNHC 180736 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 336 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG NE TO E WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS MORNING. THE WINDS ARE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINA COAST WITH A RIDGE REACHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TOWARD TEXAS. THE EFFECT OF THE NE TO E WINDS AGAINST THE FLORIDA CURRENT IS ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD AS HIGH AS 11 FT...AS NOTED BY SHIP WDB5483 SEVERAL HOURS AGO OPERATING ABOUT 40 NM WSW OF KEY WEST. THE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS SOUTHWARD BUT THEN IS ABSORBED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRES CENTER BUILDING OVER THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW EASTERLY FLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS OVER ALL BY THE FAR NE GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. WHILE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THESE FEATURES...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW BETTER INITIALIZATION THAN THE REST WITH STRONGER WINDS OVER THE STRAITS...AND CONTINUES TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST AND MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A LATE-SEASON STATIONARY FRONT FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NW YUCATAN IS DISSIPATING. A RECENT ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE FAR SE AND S CENTRAL GULF REACHING INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AS THE AIRMASS N OF THIS BOUNDARY MODIFIES...A SHEAR LINE MAY SET UP IN ITS PLACE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG ACROSS THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEAS MAY BE REACHING 8 TO 9 FT IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL DUE IN PART TO STRONG WINDS OPPOSING THE YUCATAN CURRENT. SOUTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN...LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS PERSIST WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS. WINDS OFF COLOMBIA ARE FORECAST PULSE TO 20 TO 25 KT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH MID WEEK. ELSEWHERE MODERATE TRADES PERSIST WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND 2 TO 4 FT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OUTSIDE THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS W OF 55W...NE SWELL UP TO 7 FT WILL PUSH TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY BEFORE DECAYING TO 4 TO 6 FT LATER TODAY. FRESH TRADE WINDS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 FT BY LATE MON AND PERSISTING INTO MID WEEK. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT REACHES FROM 31N69W TO 27N73W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TO CENTRAL CUBA. THE UPPER FLOW IS OUT OF THE SW ALLOWING THE FRONT TO SLOW ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT. A RECENT ASCAT SATELLITE PASS ALONG WITH CMAN COASTAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE FLOW W OF THE FRONT FROM THE NW BAHAMAS ACROSS THE GULF STREAM AND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS IS MAINTAINING SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE GULF STREAM BETWEEN SE FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT N OF 25N WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...SUPPORTED IN PART BY A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH TOMORROW. HIGH PRES BUILDING IN ITS WAKE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW SOUTH OF 25N INTO MID WEEK. NE SWELL WITH HEIGHTS TO 7 FT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA N OF 22N E OF 70W TONIGHT...THEN DECAY BELOW 6 FT THROUGH MONDAY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.