000 AGXX40 KNHC 171841 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 241 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST ANALYSIS HAS A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE JUST N OF TALLAHASSEE WITH A RIDGE SW TO NEAR 24N95W. LATEST CMAN COASTAL OBSERVATIONS FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS INDICATE 20-25 KT NE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG THE NW COAST OF CUBA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND JUST N OF THERE. THE EFFECT OF THE PERSIST FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AGAINST THE FLORIDA AND YUCATAN CURRENTS ARE ENHANCING SEA HEIGHTS OVER THE SE GULF AS WELL WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-10 FT. THE 10 FT SEAS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE...LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SW WINDS OF 10-15 KT NW OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT FOR S-SW 15-20 KT IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF. SE OF THE RIDGE...WINDS ARE E-SE AT 10-15 KT AND COVER THE AREA EASTWARD TO 88W. SE OF THE RIDGE AND E OF 88W...ELSEWHERE N OF THE NE 20-25 KT WINDS...BUOYS SHOW NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT. THE BUOYS ALONG WITH RECENT RECEIVED ALTIMETER DATA SHOW SEAS TO BE IN THE RANGES OF 5-8 FT ELSEWHERE S OF 25N E OF 89W...AND 3-4 FT ELSEWHERE E OF 89W EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT N OF 28N. SEAS W OF 89W ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE... EXCEPT FOR 4-5 FT SEAS N OF 25N W OF 94W. A SMALL POCKET OF 6-8 FT SEAS WITH 7 SEC DOMINATE WAVE PERIODS IS IDENTIFIED JUST TO THE E OF FAR S TEXAS AS INDICATED BY BUOY 42020 AT 27N97W. THE 1023 MB HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE NE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SUN. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT SUPPORTING THE NE 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND WATERS JUST W OF THERE WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT DURING SUN MORNING. STRONGER HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE S AND SW ACROSS THE GULF BEGINNING MON. THIS WILL CAUSE THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR SE GULF TO TIGHTEN ALLOWING FOR NE-E WINDS THERE TO ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 20 KT WITH SOME POCKETS OF WINDS POSSIBLY TO 25 KT. THESE WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF ZONE 25 BY WED ON A FLUCTUATING BASIS. ASSOCIATED SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 7 OR 8 FT. THE TIGHT GRADIENT THERE WILL HOLD THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING FOR THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH. FRESH RETURN FLOW IS LIKELY OVER THE FAR NW GULF AS WELL. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF...AND E-SE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF DAYS 3-5 MON THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS IN THE WESTERN GULF SHOULD DIMINISH SOME WED THROUGH LATE THU AS THE STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS INTO A WEAK HIGH CENTER OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST AND MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A LATE-SEASON STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO JUST N OF THE CENTRAL HONDURAS COAST. GIVEN THAT THIS IS MID MAY WITH HIGH SUN ANGLES AND WARM CARIBBEAN WATERS...THE AIRMASS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY IS UNDERGOING MODIFICATION...MEANING THE FRONT WILL SHORTLY UNDERGO DISSIPATION CONTINUING INTO SUN NIGHT. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS ARE STILL SURGING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AS HIGH PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF LIFTS NE. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. PREVIOUS ASCAT DATA FROM LATE LAST NIGHT INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS PERSIST OFF COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE DOWN LATE TONIGHT ...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT MON AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA...WITH SEAS REACHING TO 8 FT AT TIMES. ELSWHERE...LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH RECENT ASCAT DATA ARE SHOWING GENERALLY GENTLE TO FRESH TRADES WITH SEAS IN THE 4-5 FT...WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF 5-6 FT ELSEWHERE S OF 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W AND LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT IN THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SEAS ARE 3-5 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES...WITH HIGHER SEAS OF 4-6 FT IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC DUE TO A NE SWELL THERE. THESE SWELLS ARE FORECAST BY WAVE GUIDANCE TO SUBSIDE SOME LATE TUE...BUT NOT BEFORE PEAKING TO 8 FT ON MON. THE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES SUN NIGHT...AND PEAK TO 8 FT AND ONLY SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TUE THROUGH LATE THU. SEAS ELSEWHRE ARE EXPECTED TO VARY LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT REACHES FROM 31N72W TO 28N74W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TO CENTRAL CUBA. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS LIFTING NE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ALLOWING THE FRONT TO SLOW ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT. THE 1432 UTC ASCAT PASS VIVIDLY DEPICTED AN AREA OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS W OF THE FRONT S OF 27N DUE TO THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT THERE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE 1023 MB HIGH LOCATED JUST N OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE FRONTAL CLOUD BAND THAT CONTAINS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUN...HOWEVER SEAS OF UP TO 8 FT WILL LINGER IN THE FAR SW PORTION UNTIL SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT LATE SUN NIGHT. THE FORECAST WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AS REFLECTED BY THE UPDATED MODEL GUIDANCE. THE COLD FRONT PORTION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH TUE...WHILE THE STATIONARY GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUN THROUGH MON...AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD TO OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST TUE THROUGH THU. THE RESULTANT GRADEINT SHOULD MAITAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS S OF 22N THROUGH LATE WED BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO THU. NE SWELLS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION WILL SUBSIDE TUE AND TUE NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.