000 AGXX40 KNHC 170756 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 356 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR 28N88W WILL SHIFT NE TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RECENT CMAN COASTAL OBSERVATIONS FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS ALONG WITH ASCAT SATELLITE DATA INDICATE 20 TO 25 KT NE WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...LIKELY EXTENDING ALONG THE NW COAST OF CUBA TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE EFFECT OF THE PERSIST FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AGAINST THE FLORIDA AND YUCATAN CURRENTS ARE ENHANCING SEA HEIGHTS OVER THE SE GULF AS WELL. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LITTLE DIFFERENCE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS OVER THE SE GULF DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS EASTWARD...ALTHOUGH WINDS TO 20 KT WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SE AND SOUTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRESH RETURN FLOW IS LIKELY OVER THE FAR NW GULF AS WELL. WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY MID WEEK AHEAD OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A LATE-SEASON STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO CENTRAL HONDURAS. GIVEN THAT THIS IS MID MAY WITH HIGH SUN ANGLES AND WARM CARIBBEAN WATERS...THE AIRMASS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY IS UNDERGOING MODIFICATION...MEANING THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS ARE PUNCHING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL STILL...AS HIGH PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF LIFTS NE. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS THE HIGH PRES LIFTS OUT. RECENT ASCAT SATELLITE DATA INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS PERSIST OFF COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE DOWN SAT...BUT PROBABLY INCREASE AGAIN TO 20 TO 25 KT BY SAT NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA...WITH SEAS REACHING 8 FT AT TIMES. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS WEST OF 55W THROUGH MID WEEK. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT REACHES FROM 31N73W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BETWEEN ELEUTHRA AND CAT ISLAND...THEN ON TO CENTRAL CUBA. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS LIFTING NE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ALLOWING THE FRONT TO SLOW ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT. THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FRONT ARE STALLING IN FACT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. STRONG N TO NE WINDS PERSIST OVER THE GULF STREAM AREA TO CAY SAL...ON THE SE PERIPHERY OF 1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF. THESE WINDS AND THE ASSOCIATED HIGHER SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES LIFTS NE TO THE CAROLINA COAST. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE STALLING AND BECOMING DIFFUSE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE HIGH PRES SHIFTING SOUTHAGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SETTLING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS S OF 22N INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.