000 AGXX40 KNHC 161858 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 258 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE LATE-SEASON COLD FRONT HAS EXITED GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE LATEST ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO REVEAL FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SW GULF AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH SEAS OF 6-9 FT LAG BEHIND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF S OF ABOUT 27N...WITH HIGHER SEAS OF 8-9 FT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 5-6 FT E OF 91W...AND 3-5 FT W OF 91W WITH LOWERS SEAS OF 2-3 FT IN THE NW PORTION.WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE GULF FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY SAT AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. FRESH NE TO E WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF CUBA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS PEAKING TO 10 FT S OF 25N E OF 85W AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL COVER THE FAR NW GULF BY SAT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE GULF OF MEXICO THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS PUSHED INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WITH ITS LATEST POSITION ANALYZED FROM NW CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTM ACTIVITY STRETCHING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE 1454 UTC ASCAT PASS NOTED FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE FLOW TO THE W OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE... MODERATE E TRADES ARE NOTED EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE FAR S CENTRAL PORTION NEAR COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS HAVE BUILD TO 7-9 FT BEHIND THE FEET. CANNOT RULE OUT SEAS TO 10 FT IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NEARBY WATERS. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 2-4 FT IN THE FAR NE AND E PORTIONS. HE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MODIFY QUICKLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO CENTRAL HONDURAS BY SATURDAY. N OF THE REGION...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH SAT. THIS WILL ALLOW TRADE WIND FLOW TO DIMINISH OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TRADE WINDS INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK HOWEVER OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING AND WEAKENING FRONT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N77W SW TO NW CUBA WITH HIGH PRES PRESENT ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT. NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT IN THE FAR NW WATERS WHILE NW 20-25 KT WINDS CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT S OF ABOUT 27N. SEAS ARE 5-8 FT BEHIND THE FRONT. SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27N... EXCEPT FOR STRONGER WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF ABOUT 29N. S OF 27N E OF THE FRONT...E TO SE WINDS ARE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. SEAS ARE 3-5 FT E OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT FOR 6-9 FT N OF 28N. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING WITH REGARDS TO COLD FRONT FORECAST POSITIONS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST...REACHING FROM NEAR 31N75W TO W CENTRAL CUBA THIS EVENING... THEN SLOW DOWN TO A STALL FROM NEAR 31N70W TO EASTERN CUBA LATE SAT...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE ON SUN. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN MID- ATLC COAST AND BERMUDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR GENERALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND FAR SW WATERS SAT INTO SUN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE WINDS DIMINISH BRIEFLY TO THE MODERATE RANGE MON...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TUE AND WED AS CONTINENTAL HIGH PRES SHIFTS SEWD TO THE WATERS JUST N OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR PRES GRADEINT TO TIGHTEN OVER THOSE WATERS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.