000 AGXX40 KNHC 160756 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 356 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STRONG LATE-SEASON COLD FRONT IS EXITING THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. ASCAT DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND THE FAR SW GULF AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NW GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND FAR SW GULF AS WELL. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE GULF FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. FRESH NE TO E WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF CUBA THROUGH FRI. GFS INITIALIZED SLIGHTLY STRONG FOR THE WINDS IN THE EASTERN GULF...AND OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER ECMWF GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL COVER THE FAR NW GULF BY SAT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRES. MODERATE TO FRESH E FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N83W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS NOTED IN AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 0230 UTC BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT SATELLITE DATA INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OFF COLOMBIA THIS MORNING AS WELL. BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NW GULF SHOW MINIMAL SEAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL BUILD AS THE STRONG FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE 4 TO 6 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT OFF COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MODIFY QUICKLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO CENTRAL HONDURAS BY SATURDAY. NORTH OF THE REGION...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH LATE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TRADE WIND FLOW TO DIMINISH OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TRADE WINDS INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK HOWEVER OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING AND WEAKENING FRONT. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT HAS STARTED TO MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THIS MORNING...AND IS ANALYZED FROM 21N80W TO WEST PALM BEACH. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ALONG THE FRONT N OF 24N. FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. HOWEVER THE GFS INITIALIZED SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN NOTED IN BUOY DATA AND OFFICIAL GRIDS FOR 06 UTC TRENDED GFS OUTPUT DOWNWARD AS A RESULT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST...REACHING FROM 31N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT...FROM 31N74W TO 22N78W BY LATE SAT...THEN START TO STALL FROM 31N67W TO EASTERN CUBA BY LATE SUN BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE MON. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS POSSIBLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N THIS MORNING...BUT WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT LIFTS NE. HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FORECAST REFLECTS SLIGHTLY STRONGER GFS OUTPUT SHOWING FRESH NE TO E WINDS PERSISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SAT INTO SUN BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK SOUTH OF THE HIGH PRES. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.