000 AGXX40 KNHC 151843 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 243 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE STRONG COLD FRONT OF THE PAST FEW DAYS IS PRESENTLY LOCATED ALONG A POSITION FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA SW TO INLAND THE N CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA. TWO HIGH CENTERS...ONE OF 1027 MB IS ANALYZED OVER EASTERN TEXAS AT 29N96W...AND ANOTHER STRONG ONE OF 1031 MB OVER EASTERN MEXICO AT 22N99W. THE GALE WARNING FOR THE FAR SW PORTION S OF 21N W OF 94W WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE DURING SHORTLY BEFORE 12 PM EDT. ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG...UP TO 30 KT...IN THE NW-N CENTRAL GULF AS SHOWN IN THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS. REPORTED SEAS ARE IN THE THE 9-13 FT IN THE FAR SW GULF...8-10 FT ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT S OF 25N...AND 6-8 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 3-5 FT E OF THE FRONT AND 2-3 FT IN THE NW PORTION. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COVERING THE GULF ALONG AND TO THE E OF THE FRONT. LATEST NWS RADAR ANIMATIONS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG AND TO E OF THE FRONT ...FURTHER ENHANCED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THIS FORECAST WILL HAVE THE FRONT MOVING A LITTLE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS ONES BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. WILL FORECAST THE FRONT TO REACH FROM FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING...FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS TO NW CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE TONIGHT...AND TO E OF THE AREA DURING FRI MORNING. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE FAR SW GULF WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN BEHIND THE FRONT FRI THROUGH TUE. INITIALLY A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL PERSIST IN THE SE GULF JUST BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS PRESENT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WESTWARD TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE SEAS WILL BE UP TO 8 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WILL DOMINATE THE SE HALF OF THE GULF... INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE GULF THROUGH TUE...EXCEPT GENERALLY 1 FOOT SEAS IN THE NE GULF. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 69W AND 77W AS INDICATED BY A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. SEAS ARE 7-10 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL. THE RIDGING WILL WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES INTO THE SW N ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT...THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE SIGNIFICANTLY TO NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BY LATE TONIGHT...THEN WILL DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MANAGE TO SLIP SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY FRI MORNING WITH FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 8-9 FT BY THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ALONG 20N INTO EARLY SAT. THE ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH/ SUBSIDE BY SAT NIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 4-7 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN THE NE CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS N OF 18N E OF 82W SAT MORNING THROUGH TUE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N67W SW TO S FLORIDA. CURRENT AND RECENT BUOY/SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE BASIN ALONG WITH 4-7 FT SEAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHER SEAS OF 5-6 FT IN MOST OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE...THE SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH RECENT ALTIMETER DATA SHOW SEAS OF 3-5 FT UNDER GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS. THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE NW PORTION HAS TIGHTENED THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING HEADWAY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO APPROACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE RIDGE IS ALLOWING FOR SE 20 KT WINDS IN THE NW PORTION WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE FAR WESTERN WATERS OF ZONE 111...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT THAT ZONE. GIVEN THE FETCH AND DURATION OF THE SE 20 KT WINDS ALREADY PRESENT THERE...EXPECT THE SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 9 FT 10 FT TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN...AND BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. THIS FORECAST WILL DIVERT LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONTAL POSITIONS AND ASSOCIATED WINDS/SEAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FAR NW WATERS THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION FROM 31N80W TO 28N80W BY LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N78W TO 27N79W TO NW CUBA EARLY ON FRI...FROM NEAR 31N75W TO 27N76W TO W CENTRAL CUBA FRI NIGHT...AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 31N73W TO 27N74W TO CENTRAL CUBA EARLY SAT. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT BEHIND THE FRONT...EXCEPT S OF 27N W OF THE BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE WINDS WILL BE FRESH TO STRONG WITH HIGHER ...POSSIBLY UP TO 10 FT...IN AND NEAR THE GULF STREAM FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM NEAR 31N70W THE SE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA BY SUN...THEN FROM JUST W OF BERMUDA TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS BY MON...WITH THE FRONTAL REMNANTS LINGERING OVER THE FAR SE WATERS TUE. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO NE-E IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE RANGE..AND WITH SEAS IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR 2-3 FT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.