000 AGXX40 KNHC 150621 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 221 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE/ALABAMA BORDER TO 24N91W TO 18N92W. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW S OF 21N W OF 94W WHERE SEAS ARE UP TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG... UP TO 30 KT IN THE NW-N CENTRAL GULF AS SHOWN BY A 0248 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS...ALONG WITH 8-11 FT SEAS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM BROAD 1014 MB LOW PRES MOVING N-NE NEAR 30N85W TO 26N87W TO 22N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE TO THE N-NE ACROSS THE SE GULF AND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE LOW WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 30N83W TO 25N85W TO 21N88W BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE FAR SW GULF WILL DIMINISH...THEN FROM 26N81W TO 21.5N87W LATE TONIGHT...THEN E-SE OF THE AREA BY LATE FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 27N92W FRI MORNING...28N89W SAT MORNING...AND 29N87W SUN MORNING WHERE IT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH MON MORNING. INITIALLY A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL PERSIST IN THE SE GULF JUST BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS PRESENT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WESTWARD TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE SEAS WILL BE UP TO 8 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WILL DOMINATE THE SE HALF OF THE GULF WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE GULF THROUGH MON...EXCEPT 1-3 FT NEAR THE HIGH CENTER IN THE NE GULF. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 69W AND 78W AS INDICATED BY A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. SEAS ARE 7-10 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL. THE RIDGING WILL WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES INTO THE SW N ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE SIGNIFICANTLY TO NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BY LATE TONIGHT... THEN WILL DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MANAGE TO SLIP SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY FRI MORNING WITH FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 8-9 FT BY THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ALONG 20N INTO EARLY SAT. THE ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH/ SUBSIDE BY SAT NIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 4-7 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN THE NE CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS N OF 18N E OF 82W SAT MORNING THROUGH MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM WEAKENING 1022 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 32N70W TO THE SW-W TO SE GEORGIA. RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY/SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE BASIN ALONG WITH 4-7 FT SEAS...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE BASIN. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NW PORTION LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SE RETURN FLOW INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG BY THIS AFTERNOON. RESULTANT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-10 FT AS THE WINDS STRENGTHEN WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW CORNER THIS UPCOMING EVENING...EXTENDING FROM 31N80W TO 27N80W LATE TONIGHT...THEN WEAKENING AS IT REACHES FROM 31N74W TO 27N76W TO 23N79W BY LATE FRI NIGHT WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT DIMINISHING AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD EXTENDING FROM 31N70W TO THE SE BAHAMAS BY SUN MORNING...THEN FROM JUST W OF BERMUDA TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS BY MON MORNING. HIGH PRES WILL INITIALLY MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION BEHIND THE FRONT SUN NIGHT...BUT A REINFORCING TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE SAME PARENT LOW AS THE FRONT CLIPS THE WATERS N OF 29N MON. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT BEHIND THE FRONT...EXCEPT S OF 27N W OF THE BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE WINDS WILL BE FRESH TO STRONG WITH HIGHER SEAS IN AND NEAR THE GULF STREAM FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 21N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING THIS MORNING. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.