000 AGXX40 KNHC 140703 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 303 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS IN THE WESTERN GULF EXTENDING FROM 30N93W TO 26N95W TO 22N96W TO 20.5N97W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND SQUALL LINE EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 22N WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT AND NUMEROUS TSTMS S OF 22N W OF 93W WITH INTENSE FREQUENT LIGHTNING SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATES OF VERACRUZ AND OAXACA MEXICO. A RECENT ASCAT PASS ALREADY SHOWED GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF VERACRUZ BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE A TROUGH IS IN THE E GULF EXTENDING FROM NEAR 27N85W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W WITH ASSOCIATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS E OF 88W. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THIS TROUGH WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N88W TO 26N90W TO 22N92W TO 18N92W BY 06 UTC THU...THEN FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY 06 UTC FRI. GALE CONDITIONS IN THE W CENTRAL GULF W OF 96W WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET TONIGHT...AND WILL DIMINISH BY SUNRISE THU IN THE SW GULF W OF 94W. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-14 FT IN THOSE AREAS WITH 7-10 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW REACHING 28N92W FRI MORNING... 28N89W SAT MORNING...AND 29N87W SUN MORNING. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS OVER THE SE HALF OF THE GULF TO START OFF SAT...AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE-S WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS IN THE NW HALF OF THE GULF (EXCEPT GENTLE NEAR THE HIGH CENTER)...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGING N-NE OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS AND RESULTANT 7-10 FT SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH 4-7 FT SEAS IN THE E CARIBBEAN AND 1-3 FT SEAS IN THE CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU MORNING...WITH THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES DRAMATICALLY CONTRACTED TO WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BY FRI MORNING AS THE ATLC HIGH/RIDGING WEAKENS DUE TO A COLD FRONT. THAT SAME COLD FRONT WILL MANAGE TO SLIP SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY THU MORNING...BECOMING DIFFUSE ALONG 20N THROUGH FRI. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND 6-8 FT SEAS WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE CHANNEL...DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MEANWHILE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINING RELATIVELY LOOSE. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS IN NE-E SWELL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST NWPS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH THAT MOVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS MOVED W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SW PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG 70W KEEPING CONDITIONS UNSTABLE. RIDGING EXTENDS FROM E TO W ALONG 31N/32N WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE RETURN FLOW DOMINATING THE BASIN. LATEST BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH EARLIER ALTIMETER PASSES SHOWED 4-7 FT SEAS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS. RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU MORNING...INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE NW PORTION AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE SE GEORGIA/NE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS THU EVENING...EXTENDING FROM 30N79W TO 27N80W BY 06 UTC FRI WITH THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF IT AND BUILDING SEAS UP TO 8-10 FT N OF 28N AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING FRI EVENING AS THE FRONT WEAKENS WITH THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 31N73W TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO EASTERN CUBA BY SUNRISE SAT...THEN FROM 31N69W TO THE SE BAHAMAS SUN MORNING. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 96W... GALE WARNING TODAY. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.