000 AGXX40 KNHC 130628 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 228 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 31N-32N ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE RETURN FLOW AND 3-6 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE GULF...EXCEPT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND PRESENT. ALSO A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED IN THE SW GULF JUST W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE E OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY...AND THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH BY WED MORNING. AN IMPRESSIVE MID-MAY COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE LOCATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BREACH THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY...EXTENDING FROM 29N95W TO 26N97W TO 21.5N97W BY 06 UTC WED...FROM 30N89W TO 25N92W TO 18N93W BY 06 UTC THU...PUSHING E OF THE GULF AND SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY EARLY FRI MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ COMMENCING NOW AT 12 UTC WED AND SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SW GULF GMZ023 ZONE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST IN GMZ023 THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-14 FT IN GMZ023 DURING THE GALE WINDS. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH A 1020 MB HIGH CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE SE TIP OF LOUISIANA BY SAT MORNING. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN FRI AND SAT WITH 3-5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE GULF AND 1-3 FT SEAS ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE GULF. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT IN THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS AND S OF PUERTO RICO IS FLATTENING AND LIFTING TO THE N-NE WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ISLANDS FROM PUERTO RICO EASTWARD. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE W OF 72W. A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND ALSO NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EASTERLY WINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. THE WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS MORNING/ EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE AREA WEAKENS. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL EXPAND TO COVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7-9 FT BY WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES RIDGING N-NE OF THE BASIN STRENGTHENS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING...THEN WILL DIMINISH AS THE RIDGING WEAKENS AND RETREATS TO THE NE-E. THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN DUE TO A RATHER IMPRESSIVE MID-MAY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SW N ATLC WITH THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT MANAGING TO SNEAK SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THU MORNING...REACHING CENTRAL CUBA BY FRI MORNING...THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE THROUGH EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE N BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT OUT OF THE N IN VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADES AND 3-6 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS...INCLUDING THE TROPICAL N ATLC INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS LOCATED E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N58W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD TO NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA BORDER. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WITH FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS S OF 27N W OF 70W... WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE UP TO 7-9 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES W REACHING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATE THIS MORNING...THEN MOVING W OF THE AREA WITH MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW DOMINATING THE BASIN IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE-S THU AS THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE CHANGES TO BE MORE FROM THE NE TO SW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRES. THE LOW AND FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW PORTION THU MORNING AND SE-S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG N OF 27N W OF 73W AHEAD OF IT DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE GEORGIA/NE FLORIDA COAST LATE THU NIGHT EXTENDING FROM 31N79W TO E CENTRAL FLORIDA FRI MORNING...THEN FROM 31N74W TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA BY SAT MORNING AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW LIFTS N AWAY FROM THE AREA. CURRENTLY ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS ARE FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO SPILL SOUTHWARD ACROSS FLORIDA FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING WED INTO WED NIGHT. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING WED INTO WED NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.