000 AGXX40 KNHC 121815 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SURFACE RIDGE NE OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY E THROUGH TONIGHT AS MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEXAS COAST TUE AFTERNOON AND EXTEND FROM MISSISSIPPI TO VERACRUZ MEXICO WED...FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND TO YUCATAN PENINSULA THU...THEN MERGE WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SE GULF FRI. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS LIKELY NEAR COAST OF MEXICO W OF 95W BETWEEN 22N-24N WED. THEN THURSDAY MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING STRONG NW-N WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ IN EXCESS OF 30 KT. SINCE LAST FEW HIGH WIND EVENTS IN THIS AREA HAVE REACHED GALE FORCE I BUMPED UP THE WINDS BY 2-3 KNOTS FOR EXPECTED LOCAL EFFECTS. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF PUERTO RICO STARTING TO FILL AND LOSE DEFINITION. AS A RESULT...THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WANE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. RIDGE N OF THE AREA ALONG 32N IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE REGION. PRES GRADIENT FROM TROUGH IN EASTERN PACIFIC MAINTAINING FRESH E-SE WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL DRIFT W ACROSS CUBA AND REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WED. WINDS WILL INCREASE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EARLY WED. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN THU. WINDS INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG NEAR COAST OF COLOMBIA TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGING NE OF THE AREA IN THE CENTRAL ATLC STRENGTHENS AND PERSIST THROUGH SAT WITH SEAS TO 8-9 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ALONG 73W WILL DRIFT W AND WEAKEN...REACHING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY EARLY WED. THE TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THU WHICH WILL MOVE INTO NW PORTION FRI...AND EXTEND FROM 31N79W TO DAYTONA BEACH...FROM 31N76W TO S FLORIDA FRI NIGHT... THEN WEAKEN FROM 31N74W TO CENTRAL CUBA SAT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 95W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 21N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.